【目的】林区林业用地的大量流失已成为制约林区森林资源可持续发展的瓶颈。通过林地变化数据分析，以期找出林区林业用地面积变化的主要驱动因素及各因素对林业用地面积变化的影响程度，为相关决策部门提供借鉴和依据。【方法】选取黑龙江省森工林区1986—2013年林地利用数据和同期社会经济影响因素各项指标数据，在定性分析基础上，从经济、社会和政策因素3方面选取12项指标，以2002年之后的统计口径为标准，对1994—2002年的相应数据进行调整，应用 SPSS18软件建立多元线性回归模型并对模型进行检验。【结果】经过计算，得到黑龙江省森工林区林业用地面积影响因素模型： Y =900.565－11.082D1－53.463X6，R2=0.867，F =81.421，模型通过检验。森工林区林业产业总产值、在岗职工年平均工资、第一产业所占比重、第三产业所占比重、多种经营总产值占林业产业总产值的比重、林业固定资产投资、年末林业人口数、工人发生工伤事故人数与林业用地面积变化显著相关。1998年天保工程政策和多种经营总产值所占比重对林业用地面积变化影响最为显著。1998年天保工程政策变量符号为负，表明天保工程的实施对森工林区林业用地面积的减少起到显著的促进作用；森工林区多种经营总产值所占比重每提高1个百分点，林业用地面积减少0.53万 hm2。【结论】在多种经营过程中，应注意保护林地资源，实现林地资源的可持续利用。%[Objective]Woodland is an important part of forest resources,and is the basis of the forest. In this paper, I aimed to find out the forest region of Heilongjiang Province forestry with area change of main driving factors and to the forestry with area change in the degree of influence,so as to provide a reference and basis for the relevant decision-making departments.[Method]This study selected the forestland using data during 1986—2013 from forest industry region of Heilongjiang Province and corresponding indexes data of social and economic impact factors. On the basis of qualitative research,12 indicators were selected from the three aspects consisting of economy,society and policy factors. The data of 1994—2002 were adjusted by the statistical caliber after 2002 ,SPSS18 was applied to establish multiple linear regression model and test the model. [Result]The forestry land area of influence factor model for forest region of Heilongjiang Province was obtained:Y = 900. 565 - 11. 082D1 - 53. 463X6 ,R2 = 0. 867,F = 81. 421,model passed the test. The forestry industry output value,the average annual wages of staff and workers,the proportion of the first and third industry, diversified output value occupancy,forestry investment in fixed assets,population at the end of the year,and the casualties because of working in forestland were showed significant correclation with the change of forestry land area,respectively. The implementation of the Natural Forest Protection Project and diversified output value occupancy affects the changes of forestry land area extremely significantly. In 1998,the implementation of the Natural Forest Protection Project plays a negative role in reduced forest area land area. Once the diversified output value occupancy increased a percentage point, the forestry land area reduced 5 300 hm2 .[Conclusion]The results indicated that more attention should be paid to protect woodland resource in the process of diversification,and finally realize the sustainable use of woodland resources.
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