安徽省凤台县属于城镇化地区,其主要矛盾为耕地保护、生态建设与经济社会发展用地之间的矛盾.聚焦耕地、建设用地和生态用地,从承载体与承载对象之间的承载关系入手,构建了凤台县土地资源承载力系统动力学模型,设置了现状模式、生态模式和发展模式3种情景模拟,对不同情景下凤台县土地承载力做了评价和预测,并做出了警情判定.现状模式情景下,2014年评价结果显示,凤台县耕地承载状态为可载,建设用地承载状态和生态用地承载状态均为临界超载;2014年预警结果显示,凤台县耕地承载力警情为绿色无警,建设用地和生态用地承载力警情均为蓝色轻警.不同情景下,人口变化对于凤台县的耕地、建设用地影响不是很大,对生态用地承载状态有一定的影响.根据评价结果开展了成因分析,提出加强生态保障用地的调查评价与监测预警管理;制定合理的人口政策,平衡土地资源供给;以生态文明建设促经济社会可持续发展,提高综合承载能力等政策建议.%As the urbanization area of Anhui province,Fengtai County owns its main contradiction among cultivated land protection,ecological construction and the land-use for economic and social development. This paper constructs the System Dynamic model for land resource carrying capacity system in Fengtai County by setting three scenarios:the present mode,the ecological mode and the developing mode.This system could make the evaluation and prediction to the Fengtai County's land carrying capacity in different situation and make w arning if necessary.In the present mode,the 2014 evaluation results show that the cultivated land is in surplus,w hile the construction land and ecological land are critical overloading;T he 2014 warning results show that the carrying capacity of cultivated land is green and without warning,while the carrying capacity of construction land and ecological land are blue and with light warning.Under different scenarios,it show s that the population change has small effect on the cultivated land and construction land,w hile it has certain influence on the carrying capacity of ecological land.According to the cause analysis carried by the evaluation results,this paper put forward to strengthen the ecological land use investigation and the management of monitoring and warning,formulate rational population policies so as to balance the supply of land resources and propose some policy recommendations,such as the idea of promoting sustainable economic and social development through ecological civilization and improving the comprehensive bearing capacity.
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