本文以内生人口结构为视角，以中国各省、自治区、直辖市1990-2012年的数据为样本，通过设定面板向量自回归模型，研究人口结构、储蓄率以及经济增长之间的内在关系。结果表明：不同地区间人口结构对储蓄率和经济增长会带来不同的影响，中部地区与全国水平较为接近，各方面走势也与全国水平相似；经济增长使得少年抚养比出现持续性下降，除东部地区外，经济增长使老年抚养比也出现缓慢下降，但后续逐步趋于平稳；除东部地区外，少年抚养比的冲击使得储蓄率出现持续性上升，而老年抚养比的冲击使得储蓄率呈现出先上升后下降的特点。人口结构的变化会通过影响储蓄进而影响经济增长，而未来人口老龄化现象的加剧需要有更高的储蓄率进行应对。基于此，本文提出应通过研究现行人口政策，改变社会人口结构，提升少年抚养比，以有效应对由于“人口红利”消失对经济发展所带来的负面影响。%From the perspective of endogenous population structure, this paper picks up the data of 1990-2012 of provinces in China as sample. By setting up a PVAR model, the paper studies the intrinsic relationship between population structure, rate of saving and economic growth then compares with the national level. The results show that:Different areas of population structure on the saving rate and economic growth will bring different effects. The central region and national level is relatively close, it can be representative for the level of the entire community. Economic growth makes youth dependency ratio decline persistently. In addition to the eastern region, the economic growth makes elderly dependency ratio decline slowly, but gradually stabilized. In addition to the eastern region,because of the impact of juvenile raising,savings rate continued to rise. the impact of the elderly dependency ratio makes the impact of savings rate is first increased and then decreased. The change of population structure influences the economic growth with saving Rate. The exacerbated of future population aging needs to higher savings rates to deal with. Based on this, this paper suggests that we should study the existing population policy, change socio-demographic structure, improve the juvenile dependency ratio, to effectively deal with the negative impact on economic development due to the"demographic dividend"disappearing.
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