This paper introduces applicable objects and characteristics of three tendency prognosis methods,including tendency prognosis based on telemetry,tendency prognosis based on physical model and tendency prognosis based on prior knowledge.The paper classifies navigation satellite telemetry,focuses on the issue of tendency prognosis based on telemetry and presents the applicability for tendency prognosis.In addition,improvement measures and implementation approach is given for traditional SumSin model and ARMA model.A system is built for verifying algorithms above and early warning to navigation satellite telemetry.The simulation results show good effect,which is important for navigation satellite management in orbit.%介绍了基于遥测数据的趋势预测方法、基于物理模型的趋势预测方法和基于知识的趋势预测方法的适用对象和特点.文章对导航卫星遥测数据进行了分类,重点研究了基于遥测数据的趋势预测方法,给出了各类算法的适用性;并针对传统SumSin模型、ARMA模型的局限,给出了改进措施和实现流程.最后搭建了验证系统,用于上述算法的验证和导航卫星参数的提前预警.
展开▼
