将影响中国外贸收支平衡的全部因素纳入外贸收支差额的一般均衡模型中，对中国外贸收支顺差居高不下的成因进行实证分析。研究结果表明：导致中国外贸收支失衡的本质原因是人民币汇率低估和入世后政府片面追求数量增长的引致性扭曲。然而，人民币升值并不能缩减中国加工贸易收支顺差的规模。当前情况下，优化贸易结构、实现居民跨期消费效用最大化的关键是转变中国粗放型经济增长方式，以产业结构升级来带动外贸结构升级。%In order to find the reason for China's stubbornly high trade surplus ,we build the general equilibrium model of trade balance and the empirical test comes to the conclusion:the essential reasons for China's stubbornly high trade surplus are undervaluation of RMB exchange rate and the distortions caused by government policies of pursuing GDP grow th one‐sidedly . As a substantial appreciation of RMB is unfeasible for China now , the key to adjust China's trade surplus and to maximize intertemporal consumption utility is to transform the extensive style of economic growth and upgrade the foreign trade structure through industrial structure adjustment .
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