关税同盟的贸易效应对区域外贸易国家和地区的出口贸易具有重要影响。文章应用巴拉萨模型分析了俄白哈关税同盟的贸易效应，结合贸易效应着重探索了俄白哈关税同盟对中国新疆商品出口贸易的影响。结果表明：俄白哈关税同盟的贸易转移效应明显，贸易创造效应初步显现；中国新疆与俄白哈三国的出口贸易紧密度减弱；中国新疆对俄白哈三国的出口贸易增速下降，出口商品贸易结构中的工业制成品占比逐渐下降；俄白哈关税同盟的贸易转移效应对中国新疆商品的出口贸易带来较大冲击。%Trade effects of the Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan Customs Union has an important influence on the export trade of extra-regional trade countries and regions.This paper analyzed the trade effects of Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan Customs Union using the Balassa model,in combi-nation with trade effect,and mainly explored the Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan Customs Union effects on Xinjiang's export trade.The result shows that the trade diversion effect of this Customs Union is obvious,and the trade creation effect has started to display.There is a weak export trade relationship between Xinjiang China and Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan;trade growth of Xin-jiang to Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan export is declining;and the proportion of industrial manufac-tured goods in the trade structure of export are decreasing;the trade diversion effect of this Cus-toms Union brings significant impact on export trade of Xinj iang China.
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