首页> 中文期刊> 《思想战线》 >向东还是向西:论俄罗斯当前的战略导向

向东还是向西:论俄罗斯当前的战略导向

         

摘要

Because of its distinctive geographical characteristics and cultural traits, Russia�s stra⁃tegic choices swing periodically between the West and the East. Considering its geopolitical interests, Russia used to implement a steady Westernizing strategy for a long period in history. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the geopolitical space near western Russia has been constantly squeezed by the U⁃nited States and European Union. Due to the Western sanctions, Russia�s domestic economy is in a dif⁃ficult situation at present. Meanwhile, with the strong economic growth of East Asia and China�s peace⁃ful emergence, Russia has been provided with some moving space for its strategic breakout. Nonethe⁃less, Russia�s strategy of turning eastward does not necessarily mean its slant to China or abandoning the West. A primary reason for the Sino-Russia partnership is the current common strategic interests. Therefore, Russia�s strategic choice of the eastward swing is neither “simple harmonic motion” nor“plane pendulum”, but characterized by directionality and sphericity.%俄罗斯独特的区位特征和文化特质,决定了其战略选择呈现周期性东西方摇摆。基于地缘政治利益,俄罗斯历史上曾长期实行坚定的西化战略。苏联解体后,俄罗斯西部的地缘政治空间不断被美欧挤压;当前,在西方制裁下,其国内经济也陷入困顿。而东亚经济的强劲发展和中国的和平崛起,为俄罗斯的战略突围提供了腾挪空间。但俄罗斯的战略东移并不意味着其偏向中国,也没有显示其放弃西方。中俄结伴的首要动因是当前的共同战略利益。故而,俄罗斯战略选择的东西向摇摆既不是“简谐运动”,也不是“平面单摆”,而是具有定向性和球面性特点。

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