公路建成投入使用后路面使用性能按一定的模式衰变,掌握路面使用性能衰变情况可为规划期内养护方案决策和养护资金分配提供依据.本文运用空间代替时间思维,将灰色GM(1,1)预测模型应用于农村公路路面使用性能预测,可预测出短期内路面使用性能衰变情况.模型预测精度高,所需原始数据少,计算简单,对于我国农村公路分布范围广、里程数量庞大的实际情况具有较强的适用性.%The pavement performance of highway will have a certain decay after its completion and use.Mastering the decay of pavement performance can provide the basis for its decision making and fund allocation during the planning period.This paper uses the thinking of instead time with space and applies gray GM (1,1) prediction model to the pavement performance prediction of the rural highway,which can predict the decay of pavement performance in the short term.The model has high prediction accuracy,less original data and simple calculation.It has strong applicability to the actual situation of the wide range and the huge number of miles of rural highways.
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