With China's reform and opening up, China's economic and people's living standard continuously improved, so the number of private car ownership increased. To predict the private car ownership in China was helpful for the study on automobile industry and the field of road, energy, environment pollution and so on. Through extension classified model, this paper uses the related data of private car ownership in China in 2002-2011 and its influencing factors to carry out the interval prediction of private car ownership in China in 2011. The prediction result is 71.2645-74.2389 million, the actual is 73.2679 million which belongs to this range. The results show that the extension clustering model as a short-term interval prediction method can be applied to the study of private car ownership in China.%改革开放以来,我国经济实力不断加强,人民生活水平不断提高,私人汽车拥有量不断增加,对我国私人汽车拥有量进行预测,有利于我国汽车行业以及道路、能源、环境污染等领域的影响研究.文章通过可拓聚类模型,应用2002-2011年的我国私人汽车拥有量数据及其影响因素的相关数据,对2011年我国私人汽车拥有量进行了区间预测,预测结果为7126.45万辆-7423.89万辆,实际7326.79万辆属于这个区间,说明可拓聚类模型作为一种短期区间预测方法适用于我国私人汽车拥有量的研究.
展开▼
