In view of the threat to the safety operation of the special high voltage AC/DC power network, the paper introduces the calculation method and function of the meteorological outage probability of transmission line under the influence of the meteorological factors such as lightning, typhoon and micro Meteorological. Based on multi time information for numerical prediction of lightning, the minefield information and development trajectory prediction and wind speed size based line outage piecewise linear model, the grid micro meteorological monitoring wind record data, and the corresponding wind yaw tripping accident record of linear fitting, get wind deviation caused by the line outage probability.Based on the intensity of lightning and the wind,the total meteorological disaster outage probability of transmission line is obtained.%本文针对气象自然灾害对特高压交直流混联电网安全运行构成的威胁,介绍各类气象因素(雷电、微气象等)影响下输电线路气象停运概率的计算方法和功能应用.包括基于多时次信息进行雷击数值预报,预测雷区信息及发展轨迹,基于风速大小的线路停运分段线性模型,由电网微气象记录的风速数据,和相应风偏跳闸事故记录进行线性拟合,得到风偏引发的线路停运概率.在雷击和风偏强度基础上,获得输电线路总的气象灾害停运概率,为生成"电网气象风险设备故障集"提供基础.
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