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对在役桥梁风险损失的量化研究

         

摘要

现阶段的桥梁风险评估大多集中于设计和施工阶段,但对运营阶段的在役桥梁评估的不够,所以为了评估在役桥梁的风险损失模型,总结出了导致在役桥梁发生风险事件的风险因素,定性的概括了桥梁事故按维修程度的损伤分类。根据资产评估法给出了桥梁结构、附属结构、财产的损失模型,并提出了桥梁重建模型涉及剩余价值及重建成本两项费用。将支付意愿法的不同行业人员的生命价值模型引入了工程风险评估领域。在役桥梁风险损失模型的建立为在役桥梁风险的评估工作提供了帮助,并为今后的在役桥梁风险损失模型的深入研究给予了参考。%The risk evaluation of bridge at present mostly concentrated in design and construction stage. But still lack assessment of existing bridges in the operation stage. In order to assess the loss models of bridge, this paper summarized the factors of risk events occur in existing bridges, generalized the damage classification qualitative based on the degree of servicing in bidge accident, gave the the loss model of bridge structure, accessory structure and property according to the asset appraisal method, proposed that bridge reconstruction model related to the surplus value and the cost of rebuilding two costs, and introduced the the value of life model of willingness to pay approach different industry personnel into project risk assessment. The establishment of the bridge risk cost model provides help for the bridge risk assessment,and gives reference for future in-depth study of the existing bridge risk cost model.

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