文章基于2000年-2010年的基础数据,利用系统动力学的方法,对公交车、出租车、私家车的数量及能源消耗、碳排放做了定量分析,并对在十二五期间城市交通能源消耗、碳排放进行了预测,通过情景分析认为应当鼓励居民利用公共交通出行,同时提高公交系统的运营能力和运营效率,控制私家车的迅猛增长并逐步淘汰高耗能汽车,鼓励新能源汽车和混合动力汽车的研发.%Based on the data between 2000 and 2010, this paper makes use of the methods in system dynamics to conduct a quantitative analysis of the ownership number, energy consumption and carbon emission of bus, taxi, private cars. Besides, it predicts the quantity of the energy consumption and carbon emission in the period of the 12th five-year plan. Finally, through analyzing the varying results under different scenarios, the paper puts forward specific suggestions of policies and measures that motivating the public transport travel, promoting it's operation ability and efficiency, controlling the fast increase of private cars, eliminating the high oil-consuming cars and encourage the development and research of new energy cars or hybrid cars
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