Based on a chemical plant's actual demand of capacity expansion, three alternative plans were put forward that transform partial craft to increase production, a large renovation to raise output, solve key bottleneck equipment to enhance output. Alternative plans were analyzed and calculated by decision tree method, the expected values of three alternative plans respectively are 15.2022 million Yuan, 11.9478 million Yuan and 16.4833 million Yuan, the plan of solve key bottleneck equipment to enhance output is the best plan.%基于某化工厂扩能改造的实际需求,提出改造局部工艺来提高产量、大改造来提高产量、解决关键瓶颈设备来提高产量三个备选方案.应用决策树法对备选方案进行分析计算,三个备选方案的益损期望值分别为1520.62万元、1197.48万元、1648.33万元,解决关键瓶颈设备来提高产量为最佳方案.
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