运用线性趋势法、滑动平均法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法以及Morlet连续复小波等气象统计分析方法对龙滩水库流域的气温、降水变化趋势、突变位置、周期性进行了分析.结果表明,龙滩水库流域过去的56年间气温经历了由低温到高温的突变过程,气候倾向率在0.141℃/10 a左右,降水呈现略微下降趋势,变化幅度23.6 mm/10 a左右;气温增幅从东北向西南方向增加,降水倾向率则从西北向东南逐渐减少;流域内冬季的气温升温幅度最为明显,增温幅度达0.21℃/10 a左右,降水倾向率则秋季最大,达-3.71 mm/10 a;龙滩水库流域气温及降水的突变点在2001年～2002年间,第25年的变化强度最为剧烈,流域下一个周期将进入枯水、高温期.%The changing trends,mutation positions and periodicity of atmospheric temperature and precipitation in Longtan Reservoir Basin are analyzed by using meteorological methods of statistical analysis such as linear trend method,sliding average method,mutation test method of Mann-Kendall and continuous complex wavelet of Morlet.The results show that:(a) in past 56 years,the atmospheric temperature of basin had experienced a mutation process from low to high with a tendency rate of nearly 0.141℃/10 a,while the precipitation showed a slight downward trend with a variation range of nearly 23.6 mm/10 a;(b) the atmospheric temperature tendency rate increases gradually from northeast to southwest,while the precipitation tendency rate decreases gradually from northwest to southeast;(c) the rising extent of atmospheric temperature in winter is the most obvious,and the increase range of temperature is about 0.21 ℃/10 a,while the precipitation tendency rate in autumn is the largest,reaching-3.71 mm/10 a;and (d) the atmospheric temperature and precipitation in Longtan Reservoir Basin had a mutation point around in 2001-2002 and the shock at the 25th year is the strongest,so the following cycle of river basin would enter the period with water depletion and high temperature.
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