依据鄱阳湖流域"五河"7个入湖控制水文站及出湖湖口站观测资料,对其中人类活动影响较大的李家渡、柘林站进行径流还原,得到7个入湖站和出湖站1953~2011 年天然径流序列. 综合采用多种方法对各站径流序列进行了分析. 结果表明:李家渡站年径流量比以往研究结果增加25%左右,且枯水期增加更明显,与上游站点天然径流演变规律更具有一致性;"五河"各站天然径流量的年际变化和年内分配总体上具有相似性;入、出湖各站径流年内分配极不均匀;1953 ~2000 年,入、出湖各站径流均呈现小幅度上升趋势,但21世纪以来各站径流量处于下降趋势;各站年径流序列存在33~35 a的变化主周期,与流域年降水量变化主周期基本一致. 研究结果可为鄱阳湖流域水资源的合理开发和科学管理提供参考依据.%On the basis of the measuring data from 7 gauging stations located at the entrances of the five rivers ( Ganjiang Riv-er, Fuhe River, Xinjiang River, Raohe River, Xiushui River) entering Poyang Lake and Hukou gauging station at outlet of Poy-ang Lake, the runoff of Lijiadu Station and Zhelin Station influenced by human activities was reduced, so the natural annual run-off time series of the 8 stations from 1953 to 2011were obtained. The variation characteristics of runoff of each station were ana-lyzed by using hydrological methods comprehensively. The results show that the natural annual runoff of Lijiadu Station increases roughly by 25% compared with the previous results, and the increase was more significant during dry year, which is consistent with the natural runoff evolution laws of the upper stations. The inter-annual variation and annual distribution of runoff of the main five rivers are similar, and the annual distribution of runoff of the stations is extremely non-uniform;the annual runoff se-ries of 8 gauging stations from 1953 to 2000 presents an increase trend, but shows a decreasing trend since 2000. The main peri-od of the annual runoff is between 33 to 35 years, which is accord with that of the annual precipitation of the basin. The results provide basis for reasonable utilization and scientific management of water resources of Poyang Lake.
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