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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Environmental Health Perspectives >Curvilinearity in the dose-response curve for cancer in Japanese atomic bomb survivors.
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Curvilinearity in the dose-response curve for cancer in Japanese atomic bomb survivors.

机译：日本原子弹幸存者中癌症剂量反应曲线的曲线线性。

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Recently released data on cancer incidence in Japanese atomic bomb survivors are analyzed using a variety of relative risk models that take account of errors in estimates of dose to assess the dose response at low doses. If a relative risk model with a threshold (the dose response is assumed linear above the threshold) is fitted to solid cancer data, a threshold of more than about 0.2 Sv is inconsistent with the data, whereas these data are consistent with there being no threshold. Among solid cancer subtypes there is strong evidence for a possible dose threshold only for nonmelanoma skin cancer. If a relative risk model with a threshold (the dose response is assumed linear above the threshold) is fitted to the leukemia data, a threshold of more than about 0.3 Sv is inconsistent with the data. In contrast to the estimates for the threshold level for solid cancer data, the best estimate for the threshold level in the leukemia data is significantly different from zero even when allowance is made for a possible quadratic term in the dose response, albeit at borderline levels of statistical significance (p = 0.04). There is little evidence for curvature in the leukemia dose response from 0.2 Sv upwards. However, possible underestimation of the errors in the estimates of the dose threshold as a result of confounding and uncertainties not taken into account in the analysis, together with the lack of biological plausibility of a threshold, makes interpretation of this finding questionable.
机译：使用各种相对风险模型分析了日本原子弹幸存者中近期发生的癌症的数据，这些模型考虑了剂量估算中的误差，以评估低剂量时的剂量反应。如果将具有阈值的相对风险模型（假定剂量响应线性高于阈值）拟合到实体癌数据，则阈值大于约0.2 Sv与数据不一致，而这些数据与没有阈值一致。在实体癌亚型中，有强有力的证据表明仅针对非黑色素瘤皮肤癌可能的剂量阈值。如果将具有阈值的相对风险模型（假定剂量响应线性高于阈值）拟合到白血病数据，则阈值大于约0.3 Sv与数据不一致。与对实体癌数据阈值水平的估计相反，即使在剂量响应的可能二次项上留有余量，白血病数据中阈值水平的最佳估计也显着不同于零。统计学显着性（p = 0.04）。几乎没有证据表明从0.2 Sv向上的白血病剂量反应呈曲率。然而，由于混淆和分析中未考虑的不确定性导致剂量阈值估计中的误差可能被低估，再加上阈值缺乏生物学上的合理性，使得对该发现的解释存在疑问。

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