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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Environmental Health Perspectives >Global Air Quality and Health Co-benefits of Mitigating Near-Term Climate Change through Methane and Black Carbon Emission Controls
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Global Air Quality and Health Co-benefits of Mitigating Near-Term Climate Change through Methane and Black Carbon Emission Controls

机译：通过甲烷和黑碳排放控制来缓解近期气候变化的全球空气质量和健康共同利益

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Background: Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC), a component of fine particulate matter (PM ≤ 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter; PM2.5), are associated with premature mortality and they disrupt global and regional climate.Objectives: We examined the air quality and health benefits of 14 specific emission control measures targeting BC and methane, an ozone precursor, that were selected because of their potential to reduce the rate of climate change over the next 20–40 years.Methods: We simulated the impacts of mitigation measures on outdoor concentrations of PM2.5 and ozone using two composition-climate models, and calculated associated changes in premature PM2.5- and ozone-related deaths using epidemiologically derived concentration–response functions.Results: We estimated that, for PM2.5 and ozone, respectively, fully implementing these measures could reduce global population-weighted average surface concentrations by 23–34% and 7–17% and avoid 0.6–4.4 and 0.04–0.52 million annual premature deaths globally in 2030. More than 80% of the health benefits are estimated to occur in Asia. We estimated that BC mitigation measures would achieve approximately 98% of the deaths that would be avoided if all BC and methane mitigation measures were implemented, due to reduced BC and associated reductions of nonmethane ozone precursor and organic carbon emissions as well as stronger mortality relationships for PM2.5 relative to ozone. Although subject to large uncertainty, these estimates and conclusions are not strongly dependent on assumptions for the concentration–response function.Conclusions: In addition to climate benefits, our findings indicate that the methane and BC emission control measures would have substantial co-benefits for air quality and public health worldwide, potentially reversing trends of increasing air pollution concentrations and mortality in Africa and South, West, and Central Asia. These projected benefits are independent of carbon dioxide mitigation measures. Benefits of BC measures are underestimated because we did not account for benefits from reduced indoor exposures and because outdoor exposure estimates were limited by model spatial resolution.
机译：背景：对流层臭氧和黑碳（BC）是细颗粒物的组成部分（空气动力学直径PM≤2.5 µm； PM2.5），与过早死亡相关，并破坏了全球和区域性气候。选择14种针对BC和甲烷（一种臭氧前体）的特定排放控制措施的质量和健康益处，是因为它们有潜力在未来20-40年内降低气候变化的速度。方法：我们模拟了缓解措施的影响使用两个组成-气候模型对室外PM2.5和臭氧浓度进行了评估，并使用流行病学推导的浓度-响应函数计算了过早PM2.5和臭氧相关死亡的相关变化。结果：我们估计，对于PM2.5和分别充分实施这些措施的臭氧可以使全球人口加权的平均地表浓度降低23–34％和7–17％，并避免每年减少0.6–4.4和0.04–52万到2030年，全球的过早死亡人数。估计有80％以上的健康收益发生在亚洲。我们估计，如果实施所有的BC和甲烷缓解措施，BC缓解措施将实现大约98％的死亡避免，这是由于BC减少以及相关的非甲烷臭氧前体和有机碳排放量减少以及更强的死亡率关系所致。相对于臭氧的PM2.5。尽管存在很大的不确定性，但这些估计和结论在很大程度上不依赖于浓度-响应函数的假设。结论：除气候效益外，我们的发现还表明，甲烷和不列颠哥伦比亚省的排放控制措施将对空气产生重大的共同利益。全球质量和公共卫生，有可能扭转非洲和南亚，西亚和中亚空气污染浓度和死亡率上升的趋势。这些预计收益与二氧化碳减排措施无关。 BC措施的收益被低估了，因为我们没有考虑室内暴露减少所带来的好处，并且室外暴露的估计受到模型空间分辨率的限制。

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