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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences >The theoretical and political framing of the population factor in development
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The theoretical and political framing of the population factor in development

机译：发展中人口因素的理论和政治框架

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The silence about population growth in recent decades has hindered the ability of those concerned with ecological change, resource scarcity, health and educational systems, national security, and other global challenges to look with maximum objectivity at the problems they confront. Two central questions about population—(i) is population growth a problem? and (2) what causes fertility decline?—are often intertwined; if people think the second question implies possible coercion, or fear of upsetting cultures, they can be reluctant to talk about the first. The classic and economic theories explaining the demographic transition assume that couples want many children and they make decisions to have a smaller family when some socio-economic change occurs. However, there are numerous anomalies to this explanation. This paper suggests that the societal changes are neither necessary nor sufficient for family size to fall. Many barriers of non-evidence-based restrictive medical rules, cost, misinformation and social traditions exist between women and the fertility regulation methods and correct information they need to manage their family size. When these barriers are reduced, birth rates tend to decline. Many of the barriers reflect a patriarchal desire to control women, which can be largely explained by evolutionary biology. The theoretical explanations of fertility should (i) attach more weight to the many barriers to voluntary fertility regulation, (ii) recognize that a latent desire to control fertility may be far more prevalent among women than previously understood, and (iii) appreciate that women implicitly and rationally make benefit–cost analyses based on the information they have, wanting modern family planning only after they understand it is a safe option. Once it is understood that fertility can be lowered by purely voluntary means, comfort with talking about the population factor in development will rise.
机译：近几十年来对人口增长的沉默，阻碍了那些与生态变化，资源稀缺，卫生和教育系统，国家安全以及其他全球挑战有关的人们最大程度地客观地看待他们所面临的问题的能力。关于人口的两个核心问题—（i）人口增长是一个问题吗？ （2）导致生育力下降的原因是什么？通常是相互交织的；如果人们认为第二个问题隐含着可能的胁迫或害怕破坏文化，那么他们可能不愿意谈论第一个问题。解释人口转变的经典和经济理论认为，夫妻想要许多孩子，当一些社会经济变化发生时，他们会决定拥有一个较小的家庭。但是，这种解释有很多异常。本文认为，改变社会规模对于减少家庭规模而言既不是必需的，也不是充分的。妇女与生育管理方法以及正确的信息以管理家庭规模之间，存在着许多非循证性限制性医疗规则，成本，错误信息和社会传统的障碍。当这些障碍减少时，出生率往往会下降。许多障碍反映了家长制控制妇女的愿望，这在很大程度上可以由进化生物学来解释。对生育力的理论解释应（i）更加重视自愿生育控制的许多障碍；（ii）认识到控制生育力的潜在欲望可能比以前理解的要普遍得多，并且（iii）赞赏妇女根据他们所掌握的信息隐含和合理地进行收益成本分析，只有在他们了解这是安全的选择之后，才需要进行现代计划生育。一旦人们了解到可以通过纯粹的自愿手段降低生育能力，谈论发展中的人口因素的舒适性就会提高。

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