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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Colloquium PaperAdaptive Agents Intelligence and Emergent Human Organization: Capturing Complexity through Agent-Based Modeling: Population growth and collapse in a multiagent model of the Kayenta Anasazi in Long House Valley
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Colloquium PaperAdaptive Agents Intelligence and Emergent Human Organization: Capturing Complexity through Agent-Based Modeling: Population growth and collapse in a multiagent model of the Kayenta Anasazi in Long House Valley

机译：座谈会论文自适应智能体情报和新兴人类组织：通过基于智能体的建模捕获复杂性：长屋谷地区Kayenta Anasazi的多智能体模型中的人口增长和崩溃

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摘要

Long House Valley in the Black Mesa area of northeastern Arizona (U.S.) was inhabited by the Kayenta Anasazi from about 1800 before Christ to about anno Domini 1300. These people were prehistoric ancestors of the modern Pueblo cultures of the Colorado Plateau. Paleoenvironmental research based on alluvial geomorphology, palynology, and dendroclimatology permits accurate quantitative reconstruction of annual fluctuations in potential agricultural production (kg of maize per hectare). The archaeological record of Anasazi farming groups from anno Domini 200-1300 provides information on a millennium of sociocultural stasis, variability, change, and adaptation. We report on a multiagent computational model of this society that closely reproduces the main features of its actual history, including population ebb and flow, changing spatial settlement patterns, and eventual rapid decline. The agents in the model are monoagriculturalists, who decide both where to situate their fields as well as the location of their settlements. Nutritional needs constrain fertility. Agent heterogeneity, difficult to model mathematically, is demonstrated to be crucial to the high fidelity of the model.
机译：美国亚利桑那州东北部布莱克梅萨地区的长屋谷居住在大约公元前1800年，先于Kayenta Anasazi居住，直到大约公元1300年的多米尼。这些人是科罗拉多高原现代普韦布洛文化的史前祖先。基于冲积地貌，孢粉学和树状气候学的古环境研究可以对潜在农业生产的年度波动（每公顷玉米千克）进行准确的定量重建。来自Anno Domini 200-1300的Anasazi农业群体的考古记录提供了有关一千年的社会文化停滞，变异，变化和适应的信息。我们报告了这个社会的多主体计算模型，该模型紧密地再现了其实际历史的主要特征，包括人口的潮起潮落，变化的空间定居模式以及最终的快速衰落。该模型中的主体是单一农业主义者，他们决定将田地放置在何处以及定居点的位置。营养需求限制了生育能力。事实证明，难以通过数学模型建模的Agent异质性对于模型的高保真度至关重要。

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