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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Transformational adaptation when incremental adaptations to climate change are insufficient
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Transformational adaptation when incremental adaptations to climate change are insufficient

机译：当对气候变化的增量适应不足时的转型适应

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All human–environment systems adapt to climate and its natural variation. Adaptation to human-induced change in climate has largely been envisioned as increments of these adaptations intended to avoid disruptions of systems at their current locations. In some places, for some systems, however, vulnerabilities and risks may be so sizeable that they require transformational rather than incremental adaptations. Three classes of transformational adaptations are those that are adopted at a much larger scale, that are truly new to a particular region or resource system, and that transform places and shift locations. We illustrate these with examples drawn from Africa, Europe, and North America. Two conditions set the stage for transformational adaptation to climate change: large vulnerability in certain regions, populations, or resource systems; and severe climate change that overwhelms even robust human use systems. However, anticipatory transformational adaptation may be difficult to implement because of uncertainties about climate change risks and adaptation benefits, the high costs of transformational actions, and institutional and behavioral actions that tend to maintain existing resource systems and policies. Implementing transformational adaptation requires effort to initiate it and then to sustain the effort over time. In initiating transformational adaptation focusing events and multiple stresses are important, combined with local leadership. In sustaining transformational adaptation, it seems likely that supportive social contexts and the availability of acceptable options and resources for actions are key enabling factors. Early steps would include incorporating transformation adaptation into risk management and initiating research to expand the menu of innovative transformational adaptations.
机译：所有人类环境系统都适应气候及其自然变化。人们已经预想了对人类引起的气候变化的适应，因为这些适应的增加旨在避免系统在其当前位置的破坏。但是，在某些地方，对于某些系统而言，漏洞和风险可能是如此之大，以至于它们需要转换而不是增量适应。变革适应的三类是在更大范围内采用的变革，它们对特定区域或资源系统来说确实是新事物，并且可以改变场所和转移位置。我们以非洲，欧洲和北美为例说明这些情况。有两个条件为适应气候变化的转型奠定了基础：某些地区，人口或资源系统的脆弱性大；严峻的气候变化使强大的人类使用系统不堪重负。但是，由于气候变化风险和适应收益的不确定性，转型行动的高成本以及倾向于维持现有资源系统和政策的制度和行为行动，可能难以实施预期的转型适应。实施变革性适应需要付出努力来启动它，然后随着时间的推移保持这种努力。在发起变革性适应时，与当地领导层相结合，聚焦事件和多重压力很重要。在维持转型适应的过程中，支持性的社会环境以及可接受的行动选择和资源的可用性似乎是关键的促成因素。早期步骤将包括将转型适应措施纳入风险管理中，并开展研究以扩展创新性转型适应措施的菜单。

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