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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health >Drivers Analysis of CO2 Emissions from the Perspective of Carbon Density: The Case of Shandong Province China
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Drivers Analysis of CO2 Emissions from the Perspective of Carbon Density: The Case of Shandong Province China

机译：碳密度视角下的二氧化碳排放驱动因素分析：以中国山东省为例

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摘要

Against the backgrounds of emission reduction targets promised by China, it is crucial to explore drivers of CO2 emissions comprehensively for policy making. In this study, Shandong Province in China is taken as an example to investigate drivers in carbon density by using an extended Kaya identity and a logarithmic mean Divisia index model (LMDI) with two layers. It is concluded that there are eight positive driving factors of carbon density during 2000–2015, including traffic congestion, land urbanization, etc., and seven negative driving factors comprising energy intensity, economic structure, etc. Among these factors, economic growth and energy intensity are the main positive and negative driving factor, respectively. The contribution rate of traffic congestion and land urbanization is gradually increasing. Meanwhile, 15 driving factors are divided into five categories. Economic effect and urbanization effect are the primary positive drivers. Contrarily, energy intensity effect, structural effect, and scale effect contribute negative effects to the changes in carbon density. In the four stages, the contribution of urbanization to carbon density is inverted U. Overall, the results and suggestions can give support to decision maker to draw up relevant government policy.
机译：在中国承诺的减排目标的背景下，全面探讨二氧化碳排放的驱动因素对于制定政策至关重要。在本研究中，以中国山东省为例，通过使用扩展的Kaya身份和两层对数平均Divisia指数模型（LMDI）研究碳密度的驱动因素。结论是，在2000–2015年期间，有8个碳驱动的积极驱动因素，包括交通拥堵，土地城市化等，以及7个消极驱动因素，包括能源强度，经济结构等。在这些因素中，经济增长和能源强度分别是主要的正驱动因素和负驱动因素。交通拥堵和土地城市化的贡献率正在逐步提高。同时，将15个驱动因素分为五类。经济效应和城市化效应是主要的积极推动力。相反，能量强度效应，结构效应和水垢效应对碳密度的变化产生负面影响。在四个阶段中，城市化对碳密度的贡献是倒U的。总体而言，结果和建议可以为决策者制定相关的政府政策提供支持。

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