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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Ecology and Evolution >Detecting rare carnivores using scats: Implications for monitoring a fox incursion into Tasmania
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Detecting rare carnivores using scats: Implications for monitoring a fox incursion into Tasmania

机译：使用粪便检测稀有食肉动物：监测狐狸入侵塔斯马尼亚的含意

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The ability to detect the incursion of an invasive species or destroy the last individuals during an eradication program are some of the most difficult aspects of invasive species management. The presence of foxes in Tasmania is a contentious issue with recent structured monitoring efforts, involving collection of carnivore scats and testing for fox DNA, failing to detect any evidence of foxes. Understanding the likelihood that monitoring efforts would detect fox presence, given at least one is present, is therefore critical for understanding the role of scat monitoring for informing the response to an incursion. We undertook trials to estimate the probability of fox scat detection through monitoring by scat‐detector dogs and person searches and used this information to critically evaluate the power of scat monitoring efforts for detecting foxes in the Tasmanian landscape. The probability of detecting a single scat present in a 1‐km2 survey unit was highest for scat‐detector dogs searches (0.053) compared with person searches (x¯≅0.015) for each 10 km of search effort. Simulation of the power of recent scat monitoring efforts undertaken in Tasmania from 2011 to 2015 suggested that single foxes would have to be present in at least 20 different locations or fox breeding groups present in at least six different locations, in order to be detected with a high level of confidence (>0.80). We have shown that highly structured detection trials can provide managers with the quantitative tools needed to make judgments about the power of large‐scale scat monitoring programs. Results suggest that a fox population, if present in Tasmania, could remain undetected by a large‐scale, structured scat monitoring program. Therefore, it is likely that other forms of surveillance, in conjunction with scat monitoring, will be necessary to demonstrate that foxes are absent from Tasmania with high confidence.
机译：在根除计划中检测入侵物种入侵或破坏最后一个个体的能力是入侵物种管理最困难的方面。在塔斯马尼亚州，狐狸的存在是最近结构化监测工作中的一个有争议的问题，该工作涉及收集食肉动物粪便并测试狐狸的DNA，但未能发现狐狸的任何证据。因此，了解给定至少存在某种情况下监视工作可能检测到狐狸存在的可能性，对于理解粪便监视在通知入侵响应中的作用至关重要。我们进行了试验，以通过粪便检测犬和人员搜索进行监测来估计狐狸粪便的概率，并使用此信息来严格评估粪便监测工作在塔斯马尼亚景观中检测狐狸的力量。与人搜索相比，在1 km 2 调查单位中检测到一个单个粪便的可能性最高，对粪便探测器的狗搜索（0.053）高于人搜索（ x < / mrow> ？ ≅ 0.015 ），每10公里的搜索工作量。对塔斯马尼亚2011年至2015年最近进行的粪便监测工作的力量进行的模拟表明，必须在至少20个不同的位置出现单个狐狸，或者在至少六个不同的位置出现狐狸繁殖组，才能用这种方式进行检测。高置信度（> 0.80）。我们已经表明，高度结构化的检测试验可以为管理人员提供判断大规模粪便监测程序功能所需的定量工具。结果表明，如果在塔斯马尼亚州存在狐狸种群，那么大规模的结构化粪便监测程序可能仍无法发现狐狸种群。因此，可能有必要采用其他形式的监视以及粪便监视，以高度自信地证明塔斯马尼亚州没有狐狸。

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