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Assessment and economic valuation of air pollution impacts on human health over Europe and the United States as calculated by a multi-model ensemble in the framework of AQMEII3

机译：由AQMEII3框架中的多模型集合计算得出的欧洲和美国空气污染对人类健康影响的评估和经济评估

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The impact of air pollution on human health and the associated external costs in Europe and the United States (US) for the year 2010 are modeled by a multi-model ensemble of regional models in the frame of the third phase of the Air Quality Modelling Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3). The modeled surface concentrations of O3, CO, SO2 and PM2.5 are used as input to the Economic Valuation of Air Pollution (EVA) system to calculate the resulting health impacts and the associated external costs from each individual model. Along with a base case simulation, additional runs were performed introducing 20 % anthropogenic emission reductions both globally and regionally in Europe, North America and east Asia, as defined by the second phase of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP2).Health impacts estimated by using concentration inputs from different chemistry–transport models (CTMs) to the EVA system can vary up to a factor of 3 in Europe (12 models) and the United States (3 models). In Europe, the multi-model mean total number of premature deaths (acute and chronic) is calculated to be 414 000, while in the US, it is estimated to be 160 000, in agreement with previous global and regional studies. The economic valuation of these health impacts is calculated to be EUR 300 billion and 145 billion in Europe and the US, respectively. A subset of models that produce the smallest error compared to the surface observations at each time step against an all-model mean ensemble results in increase of health impacts by up to 30 % in Europe, while in the US, the optimal ensemble mean led to a decrease in the calculated health impacts by ~ 11 %.A total of 54 000 and 27 500 premature deaths can be avoided by a 20 % reduction of global anthropogenic emissions in Europe and the US, respectively. A 20 % reduction of North American anthropogenic emissions avoids a total of ~ 1000 premature deaths in Europe and 25 000 total premature deaths in the US. A 20 % decrease of anthropogenic emissions within the European source region avoids a total of 47 000 premature deaths in Europe. Reducing the east Asian anthropogenic emissions by 20 % avoids ~ 2000 total premature deaths in the US. These results show that the domestic anthropogenic emissions make the largest impacts on premature deaths on a continental scale, while foreign sources make a minor contribution to adverse impacts of air pollution.
机译：空气污染对人体健康的影响以及相关的外部成本在欧美（美国）在2010年第三季度空气质量建模评估的框架内由区域模型的多模型集合建模国际倡议（AQMEII3）。建模的O3，CO，SO2和PM2.5的表面浓度用作空气污染经济评估（EVA）系统的输入，以计算由此产生的健康影响以及每个模型的相关外部成本。除基础案例模拟外，还进行了额外的运行，从而将欧洲，北美和东亚的全球和区域性人为排放量减少了20％，这是由空气污染半球运输特别工作组（TF-HTAP2）第二阶段确定的）。通过使用来自不同化学传输模型（CTM）到EVA系统的浓度输入来估计对健康的影响，在欧洲（12个模型）和美国（3个模型）中，差异可能高达3倍。在欧洲，与先前的全球和区域研究一致，该模型的平均过早死亡（急性和慢性）总数为414 000，而在美国，估计为160000。据估计，在欧洲和美国，这些健康影响的经济价值分别为3000亿欧元和1450亿欧元。与全模型平均集合在每个时间步相比表面观察相比产生最小误差的模型子集在欧洲对健康的影响增加了多达30％，而在美国，最佳集合平均导致计算得出的健康影响降低了约11％。通过分别将欧洲和美国的全球人为排放量减少20％，可以避免总共5.4万和27500例过早死亡。北美人为排放量减少20％，可以避免在欧洲总共发生约1000例过早死亡，而在美国则可以避免25000例过早死亡。欧洲源区域内的人为排放量减少了20％，从而避免了欧洲总计4.7万人过早死亡。将东亚人为排放量减少20％，可避免在美国发生约2000次过早死亡。这些结果表明，在全球范围内，国内人为排放对过早死亡的影响最大，而外国来源对空气污染的不利影响贡献很小。

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