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Assessing local resilience to typhoon disasters: A case study in Nansha Guangzhou

机译:评估当地对台风灾害的应变能力:以广州南沙为例

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摘要

Building communities’ resilience to natural weather hazards requires the appropriate assessment of such capabilities. The resilience of a community is affected not only by social, economic, and infrastructural factors but also by natural factors (including both site characteristics and the intensity and frequency of events). To date, studies of natural factors have tended to draw on annual censuses and to use aggregated data, thus allowing only a limited understanding of site-specific hot or cold spots of resilience. To improve this situation, we carried out a comprehensive assessment of resilience to typhoon disasters in Nansha district, Guangzhou, China. We measured disaster resilience on 1×1-km grid units with respect to socioeconomic and infrastructural dimensions using a set of variables and also estimated natural factors in a detailed manner with a meteorological modeling tool, the Weather Research and Forecast model. We selected typhoon samples over the past 10 years, simulated the maximum typhoon-borne strong winds and precipitation of each sample, and predicted the wind speed and precipitation volume at the 100-year return-level on the basis of extreme value analysis. As a result, a composite resilience index was devised by combining factors in different domains using factor analysis coupled with the analytic hierarchy process. Resilience mapping using this composite resilience index allows local governments and planners to identify potential hot or cold spots of resilience and the dominant factors in particular locations, thereby assisting them in making more rational site-specific measures to improve local resilience to future typhoon disasters.
机译:建设社区抵御自然天气灾害的能力需要对这种能力进行适当的评估。社区的复原力不仅受到社会,经济和基础设施因素的影响,还受到自然因素(包括场地特征以及事件的强度和频率)的影响。迄今为止,对自然因素的研究倾向于利用年度人口普查并使用汇总数据,因此只能对特定地点的弹性热点或冷点进行有限的了解。为了改善这种情况,我们对中国广州市南沙区的台风灾害抗灾能力进行了综合评估。我们使用一组变量在1×1公里网格单位上测量了社会经济和基础设施规模的灾难复原力,并使用气象建模工具“天气研究和预报”模型以详细的方式估算了自然因素。我们在过去10年中选择了台风样本,模拟了每个样本的最大台风传播强风和降水量,并在极值分析的基础上预测了100年回报水平的风速和降水量。结果,通过使用因子分析和层次分析法相结合的方法,将不同域中的因子组合起来,设计出了一个综合弹性指数。使用此综合弹性指数进行的弹性映射可使地方政府和规划人员确定潜在的弹性热点或寒冷点以及特定位置的主导因素,从而帮助他们制定更加合理的针对特定地点的措施,以提高本地对未来台风灾难的弹性。

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  • 年(卷),期 -1(13),3
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  • 总页数 22
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