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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of land use science >Assessing local resilience to typhoon disasters: A case study in Nansha, Guangzhou
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Assessing local resilience to typhoon disasters: A case study in Nansha, Guangzhou

机译：评估到台风灾害的地方恢复力：广州南沙的案例研究

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摘要

Building communities' resilience to natural weather hazards requires the appropriate assessment of such capabilities. The resilience of a community is affected not only by social, economic, and infrastructural factors but also by natural factors (including both site characteristics and the intensity and frequency of events). To date, studies of natural factors have tended to draw on annual censuses and to use aggregated data, thus allowing only a limited understanding of site-specific hot or cold spots of resilience. To improve this situation, we carried out a comprehensive assessment of resilience to typhoon disasters in Nansha district, Guangzhou, China. We measured disaster resilience on 1x1-km grid units with respect to socioeconomic and infrastructural dimensions using a set of variables and also estimated natural factors in a detailed manner with a meteorological modeling tool, the Weather Research and Forecast model. We selected typhoon samples over the past 10 years, simulated the maximum typhoon-borne strong winds and precipitation of each sample, and predicted the wind speed and precipitation volume at the 100-year return-level on the basis of extreme value analysis. As a result, a composite resilience index was devised by combining factors in different domains using factor analysis coupled with the analytic hierarchy process. Resilience mapping using this composite resilience index allows local governments and planners to identify potential hot or cold spots of resilience and the dominant factors in particular locations, thereby assisting them in making more rational site-specific measures to improve local resilience to future typhoon disasters.
机译：建设社区对自然天气危害的恢复能力需要适当评估这种能力。社区的弹性不仅受到社会，经济和基础设施因素而且由自然因素（包括站点特征和事件的强度和频率）的影响而影响。迄今为止，自然因素的研究往往会绘制年度普查并使用聚合数据，从而只允许对特定于场地特定的热或抗弹性的抗弹性的理解有限。为了提高这种情况，我们对广州广州南沙区的台风灾害进行了全面评估抵御权力。我们在使用一组变量和外部变量的社会经济和基础设施尺寸上测量了1x1-km网格单元的灾难恢复性，并以气象建模工具，天气研究和预测模型详细估计了自然因素。我们在过去10年中选择了台风示例，模拟了每个样品的最大台风强风和沉淀，并在极值分析的基础上预测了100年回报级的风速和降水量。结果，使用与分析层次过程耦合的因子分析，通过组合不同域中的因子来设计复合弹性指数。利用这种复合弹性指数的弹性绘图允许地方政府和规划人员识别局部恢复力或寒冷的斑点，以及特定地点的主导因素，从而协助他们制定更合理的场地特定措施，以改善未来的台风灾害的局部恢复能力。

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  • 来源
    《Journal of land use science》 |2018年第3期|共22页
  • 作者

    Song Jinglu; Huang Bo; Li Rongrong;

  • 作者单位

    Chinese Univ Hong Kong Dept Geog &

    Resource Management Shatin Hong Kong Peoples R China;

    Chinese Univ Hong Kong Dept Geog &

    Resource Management Shatin Hong Kong Peoples R China;

    Chinese Univ Hong Kong Inst Space &

    Earth Informat Sci Shatin Hong Kong Peoples R China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 地球物理学;
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