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Assessing the sustainable development and intensification potential of beef cattle production in Sumbawa Indonesia using a system dynamics approach

机译：使用系统动力学方法评估印度尼西亚Sumbawa肉牛生产的可持续发展和集约化潜力

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The intensification of beef cattle production in dryland areas of East Indonesia has the potential to substantially raise the incomes of smallholder farmers that dominate the sector. In this study we assess the potential for intensifying beef production on Sumbawa Island, by introducing a household feedlot production system (2–20 animals) based on the Leucaena leucocephala (leucanea) tree legume as an improved source of feed. We used a system dynamics approach to model the entire value chain, accounting for herd dynamics, demand dynamics and seasonality. Our findings complement the growing body of biophysical evidence about the potential success of this intervention, by simulating improvements in the annual profitability for beef farmers in the project area of up to 415% by 2023. Increases in farm profit were shown to depend near equally on the higher productivity of the leucaena feeding system and an associated price premium, demonstrating the importance of supporting improved agricultural production with better marketing practices. The intervention was also shown to generate positive or neutral benefits for the main post-farm value chain actors. Importantly, it also reduced the GHG emission intensity of outputs from the beef herd by 16% by 2020. We explored number of scale-out pathways, including a relatively moderate pace of autonomous adoption for our main analysis, resulting in the accumulation of 3,444 hectares of leucaena 20-years after the initial project phase, which could sustain the fattening of 37,124 male cattle per year. More ambitious rates of scale-out were found to be possible without exceeding the animal and land resources of the island.
机译：印度尼西亚东部干旱地区的肉牛生产集约化有潜力大大增加主导该部门的小农户的收入。在这项研究中，我们通过引入以白花豆科豆科植物豆科植物作为改良饲料来源的家庭饲养场生产系统（2–20只动物）来评估在苏巴瓦岛上加强牛肉生产的潜力。我们使用系统动力学方法对整个价值链进行建模，并考虑了畜群动态，需求动态和季节性。我们的研究结果通过模拟到2023年该项目地区牛肉农民的年度盈利能力提高到高达415％的方式，补充了有关该干预措施潜在成功的越来越多的生物物理证据。农业利润的增长几乎均取决于银合欢饲养系统的更高生产率以及相关的价格溢价，证明了通过更好的销售实践来支持改善农业生产的重要性。干预措施还显示出对农业后价值链主要参与者产生积极或中立的好处。重要的是，到2020年，这还使牛肉群的产出温室气体排放强度降低了16％。我们探索了横向扩展途径的数量，包括相对适度的自主采用步伐进行主要分析，从而积累了3,444公顷在最初的项目阶段20年后，大约有50％的白斑羚可以维持每年37,124头公牛的增肥。人们发现，在不超出该岛动物和土地资源的前提下，可以实现更大幅度的横向扩展。

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