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Future impacts of changing land-use and climate on ecosystem services of mountain grassland and their resilience

机译：土地利用和气候变化对高山草原生态系统服务的未来影响及其复原力

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Although the ecosystem services provided by mountain grasslands have been demonstrated to be highly vulnerable to environmental and management changes in the past, it remains unclear how they will be affected in the face of a combination of further land-use/cover changes and accelerating climate change. Moreover, the resilience of ecosystem services has not been sufficiently analysed under future scenarios. This study aimed to assess future impacts on multiple mountain grassland ecosystem services and their resilience. For a study area in the Central Alps (Stubai Valley, Austria), six ecosystem services were quantified using plant trait-based models for current and future conditions (in 2050 and 2100) considering three socio-economic scenarios. Under all scenarios, the greatest changes in ecosystem services were related to the natural reforestation of abandoned grassland, causing a shift from grassland to forest services. Although the high resilience potential of most ecosystem services will be maintained in the future, climate change seems to have negative impacts, especially on the resilience of forage production. Thus, decision makers and farmers will be faced with the higher vulnerability of ecosystem services of mountain grassland. Future policies should consider both socio-economic and environmental dynamics to manage valuable ecosystem services.
机译：尽管过去已证明高山草原提供的生态系统服务极易受到环境和管理变化的影响，但仍不清楚在面对进一步的土地使用/覆盖变化和加速的气候变化时它们将如何受到影响。 。此外，在未来的情况下，尚未充分分析生态系统服务的复原力。这项研究旨在评估未来对多种山区草地生态系统服务及其弹性的影响。对于中部阿尔卑斯山（奥地利，Stubai山谷）的一个研究区，使用了基于植物性状的模型，针对当前和未来状况（2050年和2100年），考虑了三种社会经济情景，对六种生态系统服务进行了量化。在所有情况下，生态系统服务的最大变化都与废弃草地的自然重新造林有关，从而导致从草地转向森林服务。尽管将来大多数生态系统服务都具有很高的复原力潜力，但气候变化似乎具有负面影响，特别是对牧草生产的复原力。因此，决策者和农民将面临高山草原生态系统服务的更高脆弱性。未来的政策应考虑社会经济和环境动态，以管理有价值的生态系统服务。

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