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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>other >Injury Profile SIMulator a Qualitative Aggregative Modelling Framework to Predict Injury Profile as a Function of Cropping Practices and Abiotic and Biotic Environment. II. Proof of Concept: Design of IPSIM-Wheat-Eyespot
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Injury Profile SIMulator a Qualitative Aggregative Modelling Framework to Predict Injury Profile as a Function of Cropping Practices and Abiotic and Biotic Environment. II. Proof of Concept: Design of IPSIM-Wheat-Eyespot

机译：伤害概况模拟器一种定性的总体建模框架可以预测伤害概况作为种植习惯以及非生物和生物环境的函数。二。概念验证：IPSIM-Wheat-Eyespot的设计

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IPSIM (Injury Profile SIMulator) is a generic modelling framework presented in a companion paper. It aims at predicting a crop injury profile as a function of cropping practices and abiotic and biotic environment. IPSIM's modelling approach consists of designing a model with an aggregative hierarchical tree of attributes. In order to provide a proof of concept, a model, named IPSIM-Wheat-Eyespot, has been developed with the software DEXi according to the conceptual framework of IPSIM to represent final incidence of eyespot on wheat. This paper briefly presents the pathosystem, the method used to develop IPSIM-Wheat-Eyespot using IPSIM's modelling framework, simulation examples, an evaluation of the predictive quality of the model with a large dataset (526 observed site-years) and a discussion on the benefits and limitations of the approach. IPSIM-Wheat-Eyespot proved to successfully represent the annual variability of the disease, as well as the effects of cropping practices (Efficiency = 0.51, Root Mean Square Error of Prediction = 24%; bias = 5.0%). IPSIM-Wheat-Eyespot does not aim to precisely predict the incidence of eyespot on wheat. It rather aims to rank cropping systems with regard to the risk of eyespot on wheat in a given production situation through ex ante evaluations. IPSIM-Wheat-Eyespot can also help perform diagnoses of commercial fields. Its structure is simple and permits to combine available knowledge in the scientific literature (data, models) and expertise. IPSIM-Wheat-Eyespot is now available to help design cropping systems with a low risk of eyespot on wheat in a wide range of production situations, and can help perform diagnoses of commercial fields. In addition, it provides a proof of concept with regard to the modelling approach of IPSIM. IPSIM-Wheat-Eyespot will be a sub-model of IPSIM-Wheat, a model that will predict injury profile on wheat as a function of cropping practices and the production situation.
机译：IPSIM（伤害档案仿真器）是随附论文中介绍的通用建模框架。它旨在根据作物种植实践以及非生物和生物环境预测作物伤害情况。 IPSIM的建模方法包括设计一个带有聚合层次结构属性的模型。为了提供概念证明，根据IPSIM的概念框架，使用软件DEXi开发了一个名为IPSIM-Wheat-Eyespot的模型，该模型代表了小麦眼斑的最终发生率。本文简要介绍了病态系统，使用IPSIM的建模框架开发IPSIM-Wheat-Eyespot的方法，仿真示例，对具有大数据集（526个观测站点-年）的模型的预测质量进行评估，并讨论了该方法的优点和局限性。事实证明，IPSIM-Wheat-Eyespot成功代表了该疾病的年度变异性以及耕作习惯的影响（效率E = 0.51，预测均方根误差= 24％；偏倚= 5.0％）。 IPSIM-Wheat-Eyespot并非旨在精确预测小麦上的黑斑病发生率。它的目的是通过事前评估，根据给定生产状况下的小麦视力风险对种植系统进行排名。 IPSIM-Wheat-Eyespot还可以帮助执行商业领域的诊断。它的结构简单，可以将科学文献（数据，模型）中的可用知识与专业知识相结合。 IPSIM-Wheat-Eyespot现在可用于帮助设计在各种生产情况下对小麦的视线风险低的种植系统，并有助于执行商业领域的诊断。另外，它提供了有关IPSIM建模方法的概念证明。 IPSIM-Wheat-Eyespot将是IPSIM-Wheat的子模型，该模型将根据种植习惯和生产情况预测小麦的伤害状况。

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