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The effect of grid resolution on estimates of the burden of ozone and fine particulate matter on premature mortality in the United States

机译：网格分辨率对美国臭氧和细颗粒物负担对过早死亡率的估计的影响

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Assessments of human health impacts associated with outdoor air pollution often use air quality models to represent exposure, but involve uncertainties due to coarse model resolution. Here we quantify how estimates of mortality in the United States attributable to ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) at coarse resolution differ from those at finer resolution. Using the finest modeled concentrations (12 km), we estimate that 66,000 (95% CI, 39,300 – 84,500) all-cause and 21,400 (5,600 – 34,200) respiratory deaths per year are attributable to PM2.5 and O3 concentrations above low-concentration thresholds, respectively. Using model results at 36 km resolution gives mortality burdens that are 11% higher for PM2.5 and 12% higher for O3 than the 12 km estimates, suggesting a modest positive bias. We also scale modeled concentrations at 12 km to coarser resolutions by simple averaging, and repeat the mortality assessment at multiple resolutions from 24 to 408 km, including the resolutions of global models; in doing so, we account for the effect of resolution on population exposure. Coarse grid resolutions produce mortality estimates that are substantially biased low for PM2.5 (30–40% lower than the 12 km estimate at >250 km resolution), but less than 6% higher for O3 at any resolution. Mortality estimates for primary PM2.5 species show greater bias at coarse resolution than secondary species. These results suggest that coarse resolution global models (>100 km) are likely biased low for PM2.5 health effects. For ozone, biases due to coarse resolution may be much smaller, and the effect on modeled chemistry likely dominates.
机译：与室外空气污染相关的对人类健康的影响评估通常使用空气质量模型来表示暴露量，但是由于模型分辨率较粗，因此存在不确定性。在这里，我们量化了在粗分辨率下可归因于臭氧（O3）和细颗粒物（PM2.5）的美国死亡率估计与在较高分辨率下的估计值之间的差异。使用最精细的模型浓度（12 km），我们估计每年因PM2.5和O3浓度高于低浓度而导致的全因呼吸道疾病死亡人数为66,000（95％CI，39,300 – 84,500）和21,400（5,600 – 34,200）呼吸道死亡阈值。使用分辨率为36 km的模型结果得出的死亡率负担，与PM2.5估算的12 km相比，PM2.5的死亡率负担高11％，O3的死亡率负担高12％，这表明存在适度的正偏差。我们还可以通过简单的平均将模型在12 km的浓度缩放到较粗略的分辨率，并以从24到408 km的多种分辨率重复进行死亡率评估，包括全球模型的分辨率；在此过程中，我们考虑了分辨率对人口暴露的影响。粗网格分辨率产生的死亡率估计值对于PM2.5而言​​基本上偏低（在大于250 km分辨率下比12 km估计值低30–40％），但在任何分辨率下O3的死亡率估计值都低于6％。初级PM2.5物种的死亡率估计值在粗分辨率上显示出比次级物种更大的偏差。这些结果表明，对于PM2.5的健康影响，粗分辨率的全局模型（> 100 km）可能偏低。对于臭氧，由于粗分辨率引起的偏差可能小得多，并且对化学模型的影响可能占主导地位。

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