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Projecting the Impact of Regional Land-Use Change and Water Management Policies on Lake Water Quality: An Application to Periurban Lakes and Reservoirs

机译：预测区域土地利用变化和水资源管理政策对湖泊水质的影响：在Periurban湖泊和水库中的应用

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As the human population grows, the demand for living space and supplies of resources also increases, which may induce rapid change in land-use/land-cover (LULC) and associated pressures exerted on aquatic habitats. We propose a new approach to forecast the impact of regional land cover change and water management policies (i.e., targets in nutrient loads reduction) on lake and reservoir water eutrophication status using a model that requires minimal parameterisation compared with alternative methods. This approach was applied to a set of 48 periurban lakes located in the Ile de France region (IDF, France) to simulate catchment-scale management scenarios. Model outputs were subsequently compared to governmental agencies’ 2030 forecasts. Our model indicated that the efforts made to reduce pressure in the catchment of seepage lakes might be expected to be proportional to the gain that might be obtained, whereas drainage lakes will display little improvement until a critical level of pressure reduction is reached. The model also indicated that remediation measures, as currently planned by governmental agencies, might only have a marginal impact on improving the eutrophication status of lakes and reservoirs within the IDF region. Despite the commitment to appropriately managing the water resources in many countries, prospective tools to evaluate the potential impacts of global change on freshwater ecosystems integrity at medium to large spatial scales are lacking. This study proposes a new approach to investigate the impact of region-scale human-driven changes on lake and reservoir ecological status and could be implemented elsewhere with limited parameterisation. Issues are discussed that relate to model uncertainty and to its relevance as a tool applied to decision-making.
机译：随着人口的增长，对居住空间和资源供应的需求也增加了，这可能引起土地利用/土地覆被（LULC）的快速变化以及对水生生境施加的相关压力。我们提出了一种新方法来预测区域性土地覆盖变化和水管理政策（即减少养分负荷的指标）对湖泊和水库水富营养化状况的影响，该模型使用的参数最少，与替代方法相比，需要进行最小化。此方法应用于位于法兰西岛地区（法国IDF）的48个郊区湖泊，以模拟集水区规模管理方案。随后将模型输出与政府机构的2030年预测进行了比较。我们的模型表明，为减少渗漏湖集水区的压力所做的努力可能与获得的收益成正比，而在达到临界压力降低水平之前，排水湖的改善很小。该模型还表明，按照政府机构目前的计划，补救措施可能只会对改善IDF区域内湖泊和水库的富营养化状况产生边际影响。尽管许多国家承诺适当管理水资源，但缺乏在中到大型空间评估全球变化对淡水生态系统完整性的潜在影响的前瞻性工具。这项研究提出了一种新的方法来研究区域尺度的人为驱动的变化对湖泊和水库生态状况的影响，并且可以在参数有限的情况下在其他地方实施。讨论了与模型不确定性及其作为决策工具的相关性相关的问题。

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