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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>other >Predictive Habitat Modelling as a Tool to Assess the Change in Distribution and Extent of an OSPAR Priority Habitat under an Increased Ocean Temperature Scenario: Consequences for Marine Protected Area Networks and Management
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Predictive Habitat Modelling as a Tool to Assess the Change in Distribution and Extent of an OSPAR Priority Habitat under an Increased Ocean Temperature Scenario: Consequences for Marine Protected Area Networks and Management

机译：在海洋温度升高的情况下预测性栖息地建模作为评估OSPAR优先栖息地分布和范围变化的工具：海洋保护区网络和管理的后果

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The aims of this study were to determine the extent and distribution of an OSPAR priority habitat under current baseline ocean temperatures; to illustrate the prospect for habitat loss under a changing ocean temperature scenario; and to demonstrate the potential application of predictive habitat mapping in “future-proofing” conservation and biodiversity management.Maxent modelling and GIS environmental envelope analysis of the biogenic bed forming species, Modiolus modiolus was carried out. The Maxent model was tested and validated using 75%/25% training/test occurrence records and validated against two sampling biases (the whole study area and a 20km buffer). The model was compared to the envelope analysis and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (Area Under the curve; AUC) was evaluated.The performance of the Maxent model was rated as ‘good’ to ‘excellent’ on all replicated runs and low variation in the runs was recorded from the AUC values. The extent of “most suitable”, “less suitable” and “unsuitable” habitat was calculated for the baseline year (2009) and the projected increased ocean temperature scenarios (2030, 2050, 2080 and 2100). A loss of 100% of “most suitable” habitat was reported by 2080.Maintaining a suitable level of protection of marine habitats/species of conservation importance may require management of the decline and migration rather than maintenance of present extent. Methods applied in this study provide the initial application of a plausible “conservation management tool”.
机译：这项研究的目的是确定在当前基准海洋温度下OSPAR优先生境的范围和分布；说明在不断变化的海洋温度情况下生境丧失的前景；并进行了生物床形成物种Maxdiolus modiolus的Maxent建模和GIS环境包络分析，以证明预测性栖息地制图在“面向未来”的保护和生物多样性管理中的潜在应用。使用75％/ 25％的训练/测试发生记录对Maxent模型进行了测试和验证，并针对两个采样偏差（整个研究区域和20 km的缓冲区）进行了验证。将模型与包络分析进行比较，并评估接收器工作特性曲线下的面积（Area Under the curve; AUC）。在所有重复运行中，将Maxent模型的性能评为``良好''至``优秀''，低从AUC值记录运行中的变化。计算基准年（2009年）的“最合适”，“不太合适”和“不合适”栖息地的范围以及预计的海洋温度升高情景（2030、2050、2080和2100）。到2080年，据报告丧失了“最合适的”栖息地100％。要保持对海洋栖息地/具有重要保护意义的物种的适当保护水平，可能需要管理下降和迁移而不是维持目前的程度。本研究中使用的方法为合理的“养护管理工具”提供了最初的应用。

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