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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Food and Waterborne Parasitology >Bayesian risk assessment model of human cryptosporidiosis cases following consumption of raw Eastern oysters (Crassostrea virginica) contaminated with Cryptosporidium oocysts in the Hillsborough River system in Prince Edward Island Canada
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Bayesian risk assessment model of human cryptosporidiosis cases following consumption of raw Eastern oysters (Crassostrea virginica) contaminated with Cryptosporidium oocysts in the Hillsborough River system in Prince Edward Island Canada

机译：在加拿大爱德华王子岛的希尔斯伯勒河系中食用受隐孢子虫卵囊污染的东部生牡蛎（Crassostrea virginica）后的人类隐孢子虫病例的贝叶斯风险评估模型

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spp. has been associated with foodborne infectious disease outbreaks; however, it is unclear to what extent raw oyster consumption poses a risk to public health. Control of in shellfish harvest seawater in Canada is not mandatory and, despite relay/depuration processes, the parasite can remain viable in oysters for at least a month (depending on initial loads and seawater characteristics). Risks of human infection and illness from exposure to oysters contaminated with oocysts were assessed in a Bayesian framework. Two data sets were used: counts of oocysts in oysters harvested in Approved, Restricted, and Prohibited zones of the Hillsborough River system; and oocyst elimination rate from oysters exposed to oocysts in laboratory experiments. A total of 20 scenarios were assessed according to number of oysters consumed in a single serving (1, 10 and 30) and different relay times. The median probability of infection and developing cryptosporidiosis (e.g. illness) due to the consumption of raw oysters in Prince Edward Island was zero for all scenarios. However, the 95th percentiles ranged from 2% to 81% and from 1% to 59% for probability of infection and illness, respectively. When relay times were extended from 14 to 30 days and 10 oysters were consumed in one serving from the Restricted zones, these probabilities were reduced from 35% to 16% and from 15% to 7%, respectively. The 14-day relay period established by Canadian authorities for harvesting in Restricted zones seems prudent, though insufficient, as this relay period has been shown to be enough to eliminate fecal coliforms but not oocysts, which can remain viable in the oyster for over a month. Extending relay periods of 14 and 21 days for oysters harvested in Restricted zones to 30 days is likely insufficient to substantially decrease the probability of infection and illness. The highest risk was found for oysters that originated in Prohibited zones. Our findings suggest that oocysts are a potential cause of foodborne infection and illness when consuming raw oysters from Hillsborough River, one of the most important oyster production bays on Prince Edward Island. We discuss data gaps and limitations of this work in order to identify future research that can be used to reduce the uncertainties in predicted risks.
机译：spp。与食源性传染病暴发有关;然而，目前尚不清楚生牡蛎的消费对公共卫生构成何种风险。在加拿大，对贝类收获海水的控制不是强制性的，尽管进行了中继/净化过程，该寄生虫仍可以在牡蛎中存活至少一个月（取决于初始负荷和海水特性）。在贝叶斯框架下评估了暴露于受卵囊污染的牡蛎引起的人类感染和疾病的风险。使用了两个数据集：在希尔斯伯勒河系统的批准区域，限制区域和禁止区域中收获的牡蛎中的卵囊数;实验室实验中暴露于卵囊的牡蛎的卵囊和卵囊消除率。根据单次食用牡蛎的数量（1、10和30）和不同的中继时间，对总共20种情况进行了评估。在所有情况下，由于食用爱德华王子岛生牡蛎而感染和发展隐孢子虫病（例如疾病）的中位概率为零。但是，第95个百分位数的感染和患病概率分别为2％至81％和1％至59％。当接力时间从14天延长到30天，并且在禁区的一份中食用了10只牡蛎时，这些概率分别从35％降低到16％和从15％降低到7％。加拿大当局规定的在禁区捕捞的14天接生期似乎是审慎的，尽管不足，因为已证明该接生期足以消除粪便大肠菌，但不能消除卵囊，卵囊可以在牡蛎中存活一个月以上。 。将限制区域内收获的牡蛎的中继期延长14和21天，至30天，可能不足以充分降低感染和生病的可能性。发现源自禁区的牡蛎的风险最高。我们的研究结果表明，当食用爱德华王子岛最重要的牡蛎生产港之一希尔斯伯勒河的生牡蛎时，卵囊可能是食源性感染和疾病的潜在原因。我们讨论了这项工作的数据差距和局限性，以便确定可用于减少预测风险的不确定性的未来研究。

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