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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health >The Potential Impacts of Urban and Transit Planning Scenarios for 2031 on Car Use and Active Transportation in a Metropolitan Area
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The Potential Impacts of Urban and Transit Planning Scenarios for 2031 on Car Use and Active Transportation in a Metropolitan Area

机译：城市和过境计划情景对2031年在大都市区汽车使用和积极运输的潜在影响

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Land use and transportation scenarios can help evaluate the potential impacts of urban compact or transit-oriented development (TOD). Future scenarios have been based on hypothetical developments or strategic planning but both have rarely been compared. We developed scenarios for an entire metropolitan area (Montreal, Canada) based on current strategic planning documents and contrasted their potential impacts on car use and active transportation with those of hypothetical scenarios. We collected and analyzed available urban planning documents and obtained key stakeholders’ appreciation of transportation projects on their likelihood of implementation. We allocated 2006–2031 population growth according to recent trends (Business As Usual, BAU) or alternative scenarios (current planning; all in TOD areas; all in central zone). A large-scale and representative Origin-Destination Household Travel Survey was used to measure travel behavior. To estimate distances travelled by mode, in 2031, we used a mode choice model and a simpler method based on the 2008 modal share across population strata. Compared to the BAU, the scenario that allocated all the new population in already dense areas and that also included numerous public transit projects (unlikely to be implemented in 2031), was associated with greatest impacts. Nonetheless such major changes had relatively minor impacts, inducing at most a 15% reduction in distances travel by car and a 28% increase in distances walked, compared to a BAU. Strategies that directly target the reduction of car use, not considered in the scenarios assessed, may be necessary to induce substantial changes in a metropolitan area.
机译：土地使用和运输方案可以帮助评估城市紧凑或过境发展的潜在影响（TOD）。未来的情景一直基于假设的发展或战略规划，但两者都很少比较。我们根据现有的战略规划文件开发了整个大都市地区（加拿大蒙特利尔蒙特利尔蒙特利尔蒙特利尔）的情景，对比具有假设情景的汽车使用和积极运输的潜在影响。我们收集并分析了可用的城市规划文件，并获得了对运输项目的关键利益相关者对其实施的可能性。我们根据近期趋势（常见，BAU）或替代方案（当前规划;所有在TOD地区），我们分配了2006-2031人口增长;所有在中央区）。用于衡量旅行行为的大规模和代表性的原产地家庭旅游调查。为了估算模式行进的距离，在2031年，我们使用了一个模式选择模型和基于2008年跨群体分层的模态共享的更简单方法。与BAU相比，分配了已经密集地区的所有新人口的情况，也包括许多公共交通项目（不太可能于2031年实施），与最大的影响有关。尽管如此，这种重大的变化具有相对较小的影响，距离汽车距离最多15％的距离减少15％，与BAU相比，距离的距离增加28％。直接针对汽车使用的策略，在评估的情景中不考虑的策略可能是在大都市区引起大量变化的必要条件。

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