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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health >LEAP-Based Greenhouse Gases Emissions Peak and Low Carbon Pathways in China’s Tourist Industry
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LEAP-Based Greenhouse Gases Emissions Peak and Low Carbon Pathways in China’s Tourist Industry

机译：基于闰温室气体排放峰值和中国旅游业的低碳途径

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China has grown into the world’s largest tourist source market and its huge tourism activities and resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are particularly becoming a concern in the context of global climate warming. To depict the trajectory of carbon emissions, a long-range energy alternatives planning system (LEAP)-Tourist model, consisting of two scenarios and four sub-scenarios, was established for observing and predicting tourism greenhouse gas peaks in China from 2017 to 2040. The results indicate that GHG emissions will peak at 1048.01 million-ton CO2 equivalent (Mt CO2e) in 2033 under the integrated (INT) scenario. Compared with the business as usual (BAU) scenario, INT will save energy by 24.21% in 2040 and reduce energy intensity from 0.4979 tons of CO2 equivalent/104 yuan (TCO2e/104 yuan) to 0.3761 Tce/104 yuan. Although the INT scenario has achieved promising effects of energy saving and carbon reduction, the peak year 2033 in the tourist industry is still later than China’s expected peak year of 2030. This is due to the growth potential and moderate carbon control measures in the tourist industry. Thus, in order to keep the tourist industry in synchronization with China’s peak goals, more stringent measures are needed, e.g., the promotion of clean fuel shuttle buses, the encouragement of low carbon tours, the cancelation of disposable toiletries and the recycling of garbage resources. The results of this simulation study will help set GHG emission peak targets in the tourist industry and formulate a low carbon roadmap to guide carbon reduction actions in the field of GHG emissions with greater certainty.
机译：中国已经发展成为世界上最大的旅游源市场及其巨大的旅游活动，并导致温室气体（GHG）排放尤其成为全球气候变暖的关注。为了描绘碳排放的轨迹，由两种情况和四个子场景组成的远程能源替代计划制度（LEAP）-Tourist模型，从2017年到2040年观察和预测中国的旅游温室气峰。结果表明，在综合（int）情景下，GHG排放将在2033年的1048.01百万吨二氧化碳等效物（MT CO2E）。与常规（BAU）情景相比，INT将在2040年将能源节省24.21％，从0.4979吨二氧化碳等效/ 104元（TCO2E / 104元）降低能源强度为0.3761 TCE / 104元。虽然int情景取得了有希望的节能和碳减少的效果，但旅游业的高峰年份2033年仍然比中国预期的2030年高峰年晚。这是由于旅游业的增长潜力和中度碳控制措施是由于旅游业的增长潜力和中度碳控制措施。因此，为了使旅游业与中国的峰值目标同步，需要更严格的措施，例如，促进清洁燃料班车，低碳旅游的鼓励，一次性洗漱用品的取消和垃圾资源的回收。该模拟研究的结果将有助于在旅游业中设定温室气体排放峰值目标，并制定低碳路线图，以引导温室气体排放领域的碳减少行动，更加确定。

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