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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health >Spatial-Temporal Characteristics in Grain Production and Its Influencing Factors in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 1995 to 2018
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Spatial-Temporal Characteristics in Grain Production and Its Influencing Factors in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 1995 to 2018

机译：1995至2018年黄淮海平原中粮食产量及其影响因素及影响因素

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The Huang-Huai-Hai Plain is the major crop-producing region in China. Based on the climate and socio-economic data from 1995 to 2018, we analyzed the spatial–temporal characteristics in grain production and its influencing factors by using exploratory spatial data analysis, a gravity center model, a spatial panel data model, and a geographically weighted regression model. The results indicated the following: (1) The grain production of eastern and southern areas was higher, while that of western and northern areas was lower; (2) The grain production center in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain shifted from the southeast to northwest in Tai’an, and was distributed stably at the border between Jining and Tai’an; (3) The global spatial autocorrelation experienced a changing process of “decline–growth–decline”, and the area of hot and cold spots was gradually reduced and stabilized, which indicated that the polarization of grain production in local areas gradually weakened and the spatial difference gradually decreased in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain; (4) The impact of socio-economic factors has been continuously enhanced while the role of climate factors in grain production has been gradually weakened. The ratio of the effective irrigated area, the amount of fertilizer applied per unit sown area, and the average per capita annual income of rural residents were conducive to the increase in grain production in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain; however, the effect of the annual precipitation on grain production has become weaker. More importantly, the association between the three factors and grain production was found to be spatially heterogeneous at the local geographic level.
机译：黄淮海平原是中国主要作物产区。根据1995年至2018年的气候和社会经济数据，我们通过使用探索性空间数据分析，重力中心模型，空间面板数据模型和地理加权分析了粮食生产中的空间 - 时间特征及其影响因素。回归模型。结果表明：（1）东部和南部地区的粮食产量较高，而西部和北部地区的粮食产量较低; （2）黄淮海平原粮食生产中心从东南部转移到泰安西北部，并在济宁和泰安之间的边界处稳步分布; （3）全球空间自相关经历了“拒绝 - 增长下降”的变化过程，逐渐减少和稳定的热点和稳定，这表明粮食产量在局部地区的极化逐渐减弱，空间逐渐减弱黄淮海平原差异逐渐减少; （4）社会经济因素的影响一直在持续增强，而气候因素在粮食生产中的作用逐渐削弱。有效灌溉面积的比例，每单位播种地区施用的肥料量，农村居民的平均人均年收入有利于黄淮海平原粮食生产的增加;然而，年降水对粮食产量的影响变得越来越弱。更重要的是，在局部地理水平，发现三个因素和谷物生产之间的关联在空间异质。

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