首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health >Detection of Geometric Risk Factors Affecting Head-On Collisions through Multiple Logistic Regression: Improving Two-Way Rural Road Design via 2+1 Road Adaptation
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Detection of Geometric Risk Factors Affecting Head-On Collisions through Multiple Logistic Regression: Improving Two-Way Rural Road Design via 2+1 Road Adaptation

机译:通过多重逻辑回归检测影响头部冲突的几何风险因素:通过2 + 1路适应改善双向农村道路设计

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摘要

This study aims to characterize locations on two-way rural roads where head-on crashes are more likely to occur, attending to geometric road design factors. For this purpose, a case-control study was carried out using multiple logistic regression models with variables related to road design parameters, considering several scenarios. The dataset corresponding to cases (places where crashes have occurred) was collected on Spanish “1+1” rural roads over a four-year period. The controls (places where no crashes have occurred in the period) where randomly selected through a specific ad hoc designed method. The obtained model identifies risk factors and allows the computation of the odds of a head-on collision on any specific road section: width of the pavement (when it exceeds 6 m), width of the lanes (for intermediate widths between 3.25 and 3.75 m) and tight curves (less than 250 m of radius) are identified as factors significantly increasing the odds of a crash, whereas a paved shoulder is a protective factor. The identified configurations on two-way rural roads may be susceptible to transformation into “2+1” roads to decrease the odds of a head-on crash, thus preventing possible serious injuries and enhancing transportation safety.
机译:发生本研究旨在表征位置上双向农村道路,其中正面碰撞更容易,主治几何道路设计因素。为了这个目的,一个病例对照研究进行了使用多因素Logistic回归模型与道路设计参数变量,考虑几种情况。对应的情况下(其中事故发生的地方)的数据集收集了西班牙语的“1 + 1”在4年期间农村公路。其中通过特定的特设设计方法随机选择的(其中没有崩溃都发生在周期的地方)的控件。所获得的模型识别危险因素,并允许头部上就任何特定路段碰撞的可能性的计算:路面的宽度(当其超过6米),车道宽度(3.25和3.75 M之间的中间的宽度)和紧曲线(小于250米半径的)被鉴定为因素显著增加碰撞的可能性,而铺设的肩的保护因子。双向农村道路标识的配置可能容易转化为“2 + 1”的道路,以减小正面碰撞,从而防止可能的严重伤害,提高运输安全的可能性。

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