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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Springer Open Choice >Multi-model comparison of the economic and energy implications for China and India in an international climate regime
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Multi-model comparison of the economic and energy implications for China and India in an international climate regime

机译：在国际气候体制下对中国和印度的经济和能源影响的多模型比较

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摘要

This paper presents a modeling comparison on how stabilization of global climate change at about 2 °C above the pre-industrial level could affect economic and energy systems development in China and India. Seven General Equilibrium (CGE) and energy system models on either the global or national scale are soft-linked and harmonized with respect to population and economic assumptions. We simulate a climate regime, based on long-term convergence of per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, starting from the emission pledges presented in the Copenhagen Accord to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and allowing full emissions trading between countries. Under the climate regime, Indian emission allowances are allowed to grow more than the Chinese allowances, due to the per capita convergence rule and the higher population growth in India. Economic and energy implications not only differ among the two countries, but also across model types. Decreased energy intensity is the most important abatement approach in the CGE models, while decreased carbon intensity is most important in the energy system models. The reduction in carbon intensity is mostly achieved through deployment of carbon capture and storage, renewable energy sources and nuclear energy. The economic impacts are generally higher in China than in India, due to higher 2010–2050 cumulative abatement in China and the fact that India can offset more of its abatement cost though international emission trading.
机译：本文提出了一个模型比较，说明全球气候变化在比工业化前水平高约2°C的情况下如何影响中国和印度的经济和能源系统发展。在人口或经济假设方面，对全球或国家范围内的七个一般均衡（CGE）和能源系统模型进行了软链接和协调。我们以人均二氧化碳（CO2）排放量的长期收敛为基础，模拟一种气候制度，从《哥本哈根协定》中提出的《联合国气候变化框架公约》中的排放承诺开始，并允许各国之间进行充分的排放交易。在气候体制下，由于人均趋同规则和印度较高的人口增长，印度的排放配额允许增长超过中国的配额。经济和能源影响不仅在两国之间不同，而且在模型类型之间也不同。降低能源强度是CGE模型中最重要的减排方法，而降低碳强度在能源系统模型中最为重要。碳强度的降低主要是通过部署碳捕集与封存，可再生能源和核能来实现的。中国的经济影响通常比印度高，这是由于2010-2050年中国的累积减排量增加以及印度可以通过国际排放交易抵消更多的减排成本这一事实。

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