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Global climate, energy, and economic implications of international energy offsets programs

机译：国际能源抵消计划对全球气候，能源和经济的影响

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We demonstrate and apply methods for assessing global, system-scale effects on energy and greenhouse emissions of offset programs that explicitly consider the rules by which energy-based offset credits are awarded. We compare our approach to idealized calculations in which all regions, including those without mitigation obligations, face a common carbon tax. We find a substantial gap between potential reductions in emissions and those realized in a suite of hypothetical offset assignment protocols as well as between offset creation and system-scales emissions mitigation, even when project-scale additionality and compliance issues are absent and baselines are known with certainty. In the worst cases, seemingly reasonable rules were counterproductive-i.e. increased global carbon emissions, despite strictly meeting additionality and baseline requirements. But, even when we modified the rules for creating offsets to reflect more closely implementation practices, there remained a large gap between potential and realized mitigation. This difference is systemic and traces to the basic nature of offsets. Offsets subsidize the deployment of non-emitting technologies instead of penalizing the use of emitting technologies. As a consequence, offsets lower the cost of energy, and encourage greater use energy rather than its conservation. Thus, even in well-crafted programs, it is impossible to capture the full economic potential because the program lacks a means by which to engage energy conservation. We demonstrate that while offsets programs reduce the cost to regions with emissions caps, they may achieve this result at the expense of reduced global emissions mitigation.
机译：我们演示并应用了评估抵消方案的全球，系统规模的能源和温室气体排放影响的方法，这些方法明确考虑了授予基于能源的抵消信用的规则。我们将我们的方法与理想化计算进行了比较，在理想化计算中，所有地区（包括没有减排义务的地区）都面临共同的碳税。我们发现潜在的减排量与一套假设的抵消量分配协议中实现的减排量之间存在巨大差距，即使在没有项目规模的额外性和合规性问题且基线已知的情况下，抵消量的产生与系统规模的减排之间也存在巨大差距。肯定。在最坏的情况下，看似合理的规则适得其反-即尽管严格满足额外性和基准要求，但全球碳排放量却增加了。但是，即使我们修改了创建补偿的规则以更紧密地反映实施实践，在潜在缓解和已实现的缓解之间仍然存在很大差距。这种差异是系统性的，可以追溯到偏移量的基本性质。偏移量补贴了非发光技术的部署，而不是惩罚了发光技术的使用。结果，碳补偿可以降低能源成本，并鼓励更多地使用能源而不是节约能源。因此，即使在精心设计的程序中，也无法充分发挥其经济潜力，因为该程序缺乏进行节能的手段。我们证明，虽然补偿方案可以降低具有排放上限的区域的成本，但它们可能以减少全球排放量减少为代价实现这一目标。

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