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A full Bayesian approach to appraise the safety effects of pedestrian countdown signals to drivers

机译：完整的贝叶斯方法评估行人倒计时信号对驾驶员的安全影响

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摘要

Although they are meant for pedestrians, pedestrian countdown signals (PCSs) give cues to drivers about the length of the remaining green phase, hence affecting drivers' behavior at intersections. This study focuses on the evaluation of the safety effectiveness of PCSs to drivers, in the cities of Jacksonville and Gainesville, Florida, using crash modification factors (CMFs) and crash modification functions (CMFunctions). A full Bayes (FB) before-and-after with comparison group method was used to quantify the safety impacts of PCSs to drivers. The CMFs were established for distinctive categories of crashes based on crash type (rear-end and angle collisions) and severity level (total, fatal and injury (Fl), and property damage only (PDO) collisions). The CMFs findings indicated that installing PCSs result in a significant improvement of drivers' safety, at a 95% Bayesian credible interval (BCI), for total, PDO, and rear-end collisions. The results of FI and angle crashes were not significant. The CMFunctions indicate that the treatment effectiveness varies considerably with post-treatment time and traffic volume. Nevertheless, the CMFs on rear-end crashes are observed to decline with post-treatment time. In summary, the results suggest the usefulness of PCSs for drivers. The findings of this study may prompt a need for a broader research to investigate the need to design PCSs that will serve the purpose not only of pedestrians, but drivers as well.
机译：尽管它们是供行人使用的，但行人倒计时信号（PCS）可以向驾驶员提供有关剩余绿相长度的提示，从而影响驾驶员在十字路口的行为。这项研究的重点是使用碰撞修正因子（CMF）和碰撞修正函数（CMFunctions）评估佛罗里达州杰克逊维尔市和盖恩斯维尔市PCS对驾驶员的安全有效性。完全贝叶斯（FB）前后使用比较组方法来量化PCS对驾驶员的安全影响。根据碰撞类型（后端碰撞和角度碰撞）和严重性级别（总，致命和伤害（F1）和仅财产损失（PDO）碰撞），为碰撞的不同类别建立了CMF。 CMF的调查结果表明，安装PCS能够以95％的贝叶斯可信区间（BCI）显着改善驾驶员的安全性，以应对全部，PDO和追尾碰撞。 FI和角度碰撞的结果并不显着。 CMFunction表明治疗效果随治疗后时间和交通量的不同而有很大差异。但是，观察到后端崩溃的CMF随后处理时间而下降。总而言之，结果表明PCS对于驱动程序很有用。这项研究的结果可能会促使需要进行更广泛的研究，以调查设计PCS的需求，该PCS不仅要满足行人的目的，也要满足驾驶员的目的。

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