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Crash reconstruction and crash modification factors

机译：崩溃重建和崩溃修改因素

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This paper addresses the following question: Under what conditions can reconstructed road crashes be used to estimate the effect of a safety-related countermeasure? Results developed by Pearl and his associates are used to draw two main conclusions. First, when one can (1) identify a structural equation describing a type of crash, (2) identify an additional structural equation describing the countermeasure's impact, and (3) estimate the initiating conditions for a set of reconstructed crashes, then a lower bound for a crash modification factor can be estimated by simulating whether or not each of the reconstructed crashes would still have occurred had the countermeasure been present. If the countermeasure's effect is monotonic this bound becomes tight. Second, in situations where it is not possible to reliably identify the structural equations needed for simulation, but where one can (1) identify a set of crash inputs which, when given, make the crash outcome conditionally independent of the countermeasure, and (2) predict how the distribution of these inputs will change in response to the countermeasure, then nonparametric estimation of the countermeasure's crash modification factor is possible. When it is not possible to predict the countermeasure's effect on the conditioning variables it may still be possible to identify constraints or specifications which the countermeasure should satisfy in order to realize a target crash modification.
机译：本文解决了以下问题：在什么情况下可以使用重构的道路交通事故来估算安全相关对策的效果？ Pearl及其同事开发的结果可得出两个主要结论。首先，当一个人可以（1）识别描述碰撞类型的结构方程时，（2）识别描述对策影响的附加结构方程，并且（3）估计一组重构碰撞的起始条件，然后确定下限可以通过模拟如果存在对策，是否仍会发生每个重构的碰撞，来估计碰撞修正系数。如果对策的效果是单调的，则此界限将变得严格。第二，在无法可靠地确定仿真所需的结构方程式但可以（1）确定一组碰撞输入的情况下，当给出碰撞输入时，碰撞输入有条件地独立于对策，并且（2） ）预测这些输入的分布将如何响应对策而变化，然后可以对对策的崩溃修正因子进行非参数估计。当不可能预测对策对条件变量的影响时，仍然有可能确定对策应满足的约束或规格，以实现目标碰撞修改。

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