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How does a modal shift from short car trips to cycling affect road safety?

机译：从短途旅行到骑车的模式转换如何影响道路安全？

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Governments aim to promote a shift from car to bicycle, but concerns about road safety seem to represent an important argument against this encouragement. This study examines the road safety impact of a modal shift from short car trips to cycling in Dutch municipalities. The road safety effect is estimated using Accident Prediction Models (APMs) that account for the non-linearity of risk. APMs are developed utilizing Negative Binomial regression. This study is the first to develop APMs using crash and mobility data from municipalities, and utilizing these models to estimate the effects of changing modal splits of current car and bicycle use to modal splits that actually exist in these municipalities. The results suggest that, under conditions such as in Dutch municipalities, transferring short trips made by cars to bicycles does not change the number of fatalities, but increases the number of serious road injuries. The neutral effect on fatalities, despite the high fatality risk for cyclists, can be explained by there being fewer cars on the road to pose a risk to others, the shorter length of bicycle trips compared to the car trips they replace, and the "safety in numbers" phenomenon. The rise in the number of serious road injuries is due wholly to the high number of cycling crashes with no other vehicle involved. The effect of a modal shift is dependent on the age of the population in which the shift is concentrated, and can be influenced by measures affecting cyclists' injury risk.
机译：政府的目标是促进从汽车到自行车的转变，但对道路安全的担忧似乎是反对这种鼓励的重要论据。这项研究考察了荷兰市政当局从短途出行到骑行的模式转换对道路安全的影响。使用事故预测模型（APM）估算道路安全影响，该模型可说明风险的非线性。 APM是利用负二项式回归法开发的。这项研究是第一个使用市政当局的碰撞和出行数据开发APM的方法，并利用这些模型来估计将当前汽车和自行车使用方式划分更改为这些市政当局实际存在的方式划分的影响。结果表明，在诸如荷兰市政当局之类的条件下，将汽车短途旅行转移至自行车不会改变死亡人数，但会增加严重道路伤害的人数。尽管对骑自行车的人来说致命的风险很高，但对死亡的中性影响可以解释为：道路上对他人构成危险的汽车越来越少，自行车旅行的时间比他们所替代的汽车旅行的时间短以及“安全性”数量”现象。严重道路伤害的数量增加，完全是由于没有其他车辆而导致的大量自行车撞车事故。方式转移的影响取决于转移集中人群的年龄，并可能受到影响骑自行车者受伤风险的措施的影响。

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