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首页> 外文期刊>Traffic Injury Prevention >The Effect on Road Safety of a Modal Shift From Car to Bicycle
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The Effect on Road Safety of a Modal Shift From Car to Bicycle

机译：从汽车到自行车的方式转换对道路安全的影响

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Objective: To describe and apply a method to assess the effect on road safety of a modal shift from cars to bicycles. Method: Ten percent of all car trips shorter than 7.5? km were assumed to be replaced by bicycle trips. Single-vehicle and multivehicle crashes involving cars and/or bicycles were considered. The safety of car occupants and cyclists was taken into account as well as the safety of other road users involved in such crashes. The computations were carried out by age and gender. Assuming constant risk (casualties per distance traveled), the expected number of accidents is proportional to the mobility shift. Several types of risk were considered: the risk of being injured as a car driver or cyclist and the risk of being involved as a car driver or cyclist in a crash in which another road user is injured. Results: The results indicated that the total gain of the modal shift was negative for fatalities, which means that there was a net increase in the number of fatalities. The modal shift was advantageous for young drivers and disadvantageous for elderly drivers. In addition, it was more positive for males than for females. The turning point was around the age of 35. For hospitalized casualties, due to the strong influence of the many hospitalized cyclists in nonmotorized vehicle crashes, there was a strong negative overall effect, and the modal shift resulted in a positive effect for 18- and 19-year-old males only.Overall, a small increase (up to 1%) in the number of cyclist fatalities and a greater increase of 3.5 percent in the number of inpatients was expected. The increase in casualties was mainly due to the proportion of single-vehicle bicycle crashes with serious injuries in relation to the total number of injured cyclists. The effect of the modal shift was shown to depend on age and gender, resulting in fewer casualties for younger drivers and for women. Conclusions: It is possible to provide a first approximation of the effect on road safety of a mobility shift from cars to bicycles. This approximation indicates that, in general, road safety does not benefit from this modal shift. The effect differs for gender and age groups. Elderly drivers are safer inside a car than on a bicycle. For the number of hospitalized casualties, the modal shift increases the number of casualties for practically all ages and both genders.View full textDownload full textKeywordsBicyclist, Car, Road safety, Modeling, Modal shift, Young driver, Elderly driverRelated var addthis_config = { ui_cobrand: "Taylor & Francis Online", services_compact: "citeulike,netvibes,twitter,technorati,delicious,linkedin,facebook,stumbleupon,digg,google,more", pubid: "ra-4dff56cd6bb1830b" }; var addthis_config = {"data_track_addressbar":true,"ui_click":true}; Add to shortlist Link Permalink http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15389588.2012.660661
机译：目的：描述并应用一种方法来评估从汽车到自行车的模式转换对道路安全的影响。方法：少于7.5的所有汽车旅行中有百分之十？公里被认为由自行车旅行代替。考虑了涉及汽车和/或自行车的单车和多车碰撞。考虑了乘车人和骑车人的安全以及涉及此类碰撞的其他道路使用者的安全。计算是按年龄和性别进行的。假设风险恒定（每行驶距离的伤亡人数），则预期的事故数量与移动性变化成正比。考虑了几种类型的风险：作为汽车驾驶员或骑自行车的人受伤的风险，以及作为汽车驾驶员或骑自行车的人卷入另一名道路使用者受伤的撞车事故的风险。结果：结果表明，模态转移的总死亡人数为负，这意味着死亡人数净增加。模态转换对年轻驾驶员有利，而对老年驾驶员不利。此外，男性比女性更积极。转折点在35岁左右。对于住院的伤亡人员，由于许多住院骑自行车的人在非机动车碰撞中的强烈影响，产生了很大的负面影响，而模态变化对18岁和30岁的儿童产生了积极影响。仅19岁的男性。总体而言，骑自行车的人的死亡人数将有小幅增长（最高1％），住院人数将增长3.5％。伤亡人数增加主要是由于严重伤害的单车自行车事故占受伤自行车总数的比例。事实表明，模式转变的影响取决于年龄和性别，从而减少了年轻驾驶员和女性的伤亡。结论：可以提供从汽车到自行车的移动性转换对道路安全的影响的第一近似值。该近似值表明，总体而言，道路安全不会从这种模式转换中受益。性别和年龄组的影响有所不同。年长的司机在车内比骑自行车更安全。对于住院伤亡人数来说，模态转变实际上增加了几乎所有年龄段和性别的伤亡人数。查看全文下载关键词自行车，汽车，道路安全，建模，模态转变，年轻驾驶员，老年人驾驶员相关变量var addthis_config = {ui_cobrand： “泰勒和弗朗西斯在线”，services_compact：“ citeulike，netvibes，twitter，technorati，delicious，linkedin，facebook，stumbleupon，digg，google，更多”，发布：“ ra-4dff56cd6bb1830b”}; var addthis_config = {“ data_track_addressbar”：true，“ ui_click”：true};添加到候选列表链接永久链接http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15389588.2012.660661

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