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Evaluating the Signal Head Upgrade Program in the City of Surrey

机译：评估萨里市的信号头升级计划

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摘要

This paper demonstrates the application of full Bayes multivariate linear intervention models to evaluate the impact of the Signal Head Upgrade Program in the City of Surrey, British Columbia. The program was implemented by the Insurance Corporation of British Columbia (ICBC) and is aimed at reducing the number of collisions by improving signal visibility. Specific improvements include: upgrading signal lens size, installing new backplates, adding reflective tapes to existing backplates, and installing additional signal heads. The evaluation utilizes full Bayes multivariate linear intervention models with a multiple regression links representing time, treatment, and interaction effects as well as the traffic volumes effects. The models were utilized to determine the safety impacts of the program on each combination of collision severity and collision time of occurrence (i.e. severe/day-time, severeight-time, PDO/day-time, PDOight-time) in the City of Surrey. The results indicated the effectiveness of the program in improving the safety of the treated intersections as there were reductions in all types of collisions at the treated sites after the improvement. However, such reductions were statistically significant only for night-time severe collisions and day-time PDO collisions.
机译：本文演示了完整的贝叶斯多元线性干预模型在不列颠哥伦比亚省萨里市评估信号头升级计划的影响的应用。该程序由不列颠哥伦比亚省的保险公司（ICBC）实施，旨在通过提高信号可视性来减少碰撞次数。具体改进包括：增加信号透镜的尺寸，安装新的背板，在现有背板上增加反光带以及安装其他信号头。该评估利用了完整的贝叶斯多元线性干预模型，该模型具有表示时间，治疗，交互作用以及交通量影响的多个回归链接。利用这些模型来确定程序对碰撞严重性和碰撞发生时间（即严重/白天，严重/夜间，PDO /白天，PDO /夜间）的每种组合的安全影响。萨里市。结果表明，该程序在改善所处理交叉路口的安全性方面是有效的，因为在改善之后，所处理站点的所有类型的碰撞都有所减少。但是，此类减少仅在夜间严重碰撞和白天PDO碰撞方面具有统计学意义。

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