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The extreme value theory approach to safety estimation.

机译：极值理论方法进行安全估计。

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摘要

Crash-based safety analysis is hampered by several shortcomings, such as randomness and rarity of crash occurrences, lack of timeliness, and inconsistency in crash reporting. Safety analysis based on observable traffic characteristics more frequent than crashes is one promising alternative. In this research, we proposed a novel application of the extreme value theory to estimate safety. The method is considered proactive in that it no longer requires historical crash data for the model calibration. We evaluated the proposed method by applying it to right-angle collisions at signalized intersections. Evaluation results indicated a promising relationship between safety estimates and historical crash data. Crash estimates at seven out of twelve sites remained within the range of Poisson-based confidence intervals established using historical crash data. The test has yielded large-variance safety estimates due to the short 8-h observation period. A simulation experiment conducted in this study revealed that 3-6 weeks of observation are needed to obtain safety estimates with confidence intervals comparable to those being obtained from 4-year observed crash counts. The proposed method can be applied to other types of locations and collisions as well.
机译：基于碰撞的安全性分析受到一些缺陷的阻碍，例如碰撞事件的随机性和稀有性，缺乏及时性以及碰撞报告的不一致。一种基于可观察到的交通特征（比事故多发生）的安全分析是一种有前途的选择。在这项研究中，我们提出了极值理论在安全性评估中的新应用。该方法被认为是主动的，因为它不再需要历史碰撞数据来进行模型校准。通过将其应用于信号交叉口的直角碰撞，我们评估了该方法。评估结果表明，安全估计和历史碰撞数据之间存在有希望的关系。 12个站点中有7个站点的崩溃估计数仍处于使用历史崩溃数据建立的基于泊松的置信区间内。由于观察期短至8小时，因此该测试得出的安全性估计值存在较大差异。在这项研究中进行的模拟实验表明，需要3-6周的观察时间来获得安全性估计，其置信区间可与从4年观察到的碰撞计数获得的估计区间相比。所提出的方法也可以应用于其他类型的位置和碰撞。

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