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Development and application of tender evaluation decision-making and risk early warning system for water projects based on KDD

机译：基于KDD的水利工程投标评价决策与风险预警系统的开发与应用

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摘要

Assessing bidder's tender is very important for an employer in deciding whether to award or not. Marking scheme method is generally used to evaluate the tenders of construction project in China. And the mainly advantage of this method is the application of the expert's personal knowledge and experience which makes the contractor selection more reasonable. However, if the low scores given by the experts are usually omitted when the marking scheme method is applied, the contractor with certain potential risks may win the bid, which may make the project not be executed and completed in accordance with the contract. To overcome these weaknesses, the outlier detection model, one of Knowledge Discovery in Database (KDD) method, based on similar coefficient sum was set up in this paper. In this model, the outliers were detected based on the experts' tender evaluation data of the water projects. Then, the risk factors of contractor's attributes were obtained and the risk early warning was carried out. The proposed model is used in the tender evaluation decision-making and risk early warning of the water projects in Tianjin, China. The empirical survey was also made to verify the proposed model. From the feedback of the questionnaires, the survey showed that the outliers detection model could detect the latent risks effectively. Accordingly, some advice was given to the employers to prevent the potential risks. Finally, the proposed method and model were introduced into a tender evaluation decision-making and risk early warning system (TEDREWS) for convenient and efficient tender evaluation and risk management.
机译：评估投标人的投标对雇主决定是否中标非常重要。评标方案法通常用于评价中国建设项目的招标。这种方法的主要优点是专家的个人知识和经验的应用，使承包商的选择更加合理。但是，如果采用打分方案的方法通常忽略了专家给出的低分，则具有一定潜在风险的承包商可能会中标，这可能会使项目无法按照合同执行和完成。为了克服这些缺点，本文建立了基于相似系数和的离群值检测模型，即数据库知识发现（KDD）方法之一。在该模型中，基于专家对水项目的投标评估数据来检测离群值。然后，获取承包商属性的风险因素，并进行风险预警。该模型用于中国天津市水利工程项目的评标决策和风险预警。还进行了实证调查，以验证提出的模型。从问卷调查的反馈来看，异常值检测模型可以有效地检测潜在风险。因此，已向雇主提供了一些建议，以防止潜在的风险。最后，将所提出的方法和模型引入到招标评估决策和风险预警系统（TEDREWS）中，以方便，高效地进行招标评估和风险管理。

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