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首页> 外文期刊>Advances in Water Resources >Advances in separating effects of climate variability and human activity on stream discharge: An overview
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Advances in separating effects of climate variability and human activity on stream discharge: An overview

机译：分离气候变化和人类活动对河流排放的影响的研究进展：概述

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摘要

Separating effects of climate change (ΔQ~c) and human activity (ΔQ~h) on stream discharge at the watershed scale is needed for developing adaptive measures to climate change. However, information is scarce in existing literature regarding whether such separating is feasible and whether reliable results can be produced. The objectives of this overview were to: (1) compare currently-used methods; (2) assess assumptions and issues of the methods; and (3) present a generic framework that overcomes possible issues. Based on the overview of fifteen recent representative studies, two methods can be used to estimate absolute magnitudes of ΔQ~c and ΔQ~h, while another method can be used to distinguish relative magnitudes of ΔQ~c versus ΔQ~h only. Because the methods' fundamental assumptions about baseline versus altered period, water storage change and deep groundwater loss, precipitation-runoff relationship, hysteresis influence of human activity, and record of time series can seldom be satisfied for many watersheds, it is more realistic and practical to distinguish relative effects than to estimate absolute magnitudes of ΔQ~c and ΔQ~h. Moreover, a generic framework was presented for gauged watersheds with negligible groundwater loss, aiming to avoid misuse of the methods in practice.
机译：为了制定适应气候变化的措施，需要在分水岭规模上将气候变化（ΔQ〜c）和人类活动（ΔQ〜h）的流量分开。但是，在现有文献中缺乏关于这种分离是否可行以及是否可以产生可靠结果的信息。本概述的目标是：（1）比较当前使用的方法； （2）评估方法的假设和问题； （3）提出了克服可能问题的通用框架。基于最近的十五项代表性研究的概述，可以使用两种方法来估计ΔQ〜c和ΔQ〜h的绝对大小，而使用另一种方法来区分ΔQ〜c与ΔQ〜h的相对大小。因为这些方法对于许多流域很少能满足有关基线与变化周期，储水量变化和深层地下水流失，降水-径流关系，人类活动的滞后影响以及时间序列记录的基本假设，所以它更加现实和实用。区分相对影响，而不是估计ΔQ〜c和ΔQ〜h的绝对大小。此外，提出了针对地下水流失量可忽略不计的流域的通用框架，旨在避免在实践中误用这些方法。

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