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首页> 外文期刊>Advances in Water Resources >Real time prediction approach for floods caused by failure of natural dams due to overtopping
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Real time prediction approach for floods caused by failure of natural dams due to overtopping

机译：天然水坝倒塌引起的洪水实时预报方法

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摘要

This paper presents a real time prediction approach for floods caused by failure of natural dams due to overtopping. The approach adopts the observed outflow data of the preceding failure process for calibrating a simulation model, and the calibrated model is then implemented to predict the remaining failure process and flood characteristics. A widely used parametric model of dam failure is adopted in consideration of practicability and computational simplicity. The problems raised by interrelation among the model parameters and impeding the model calibration are analytically identified, and a simple but effective solution method is proposed. The approach was examined through two idealized cases where there exist no model inadequacy and measurement errors. Its effectiveness of and applicability to predicting the peak discharge and the time to peak of various outflows were exhibited. The real world case of Tang-jiashan Quake Lake in China was further analyzed. The outflow peak discharge and the time to peak were reasonably predicted with one and a half hours ahead, demonstrating its potential for practical applications. Multistage features of the breach growth in nature may lower its performance due to raising difficulties in the identification of reasonable predictions. Future work of improving the model adequacy and observation accuracy would enhance its applicability to natural environments.
机译：本文提出了一种自然灾害的实时预测方法，该洪水是由自然水坝因倒塌而引起的。该方法采用观察到的先前故障过程的流出数据来校准仿真模型，然后实施已校准的模型以预测剩余的故障过程和洪水特征。考虑到实用性和计算简单性，采用了广泛使用的大坝破坏参数模型。通过分析确定了模型参数之间的相互关系以及阻碍模型校准的问题，提出了一种简单有效的求解方法。通过两个没有模型不足和测量误差的理想情况检查了该方法。展示了其在预测峰值流量和各种流出量达到峰值的时间方面的有效性和适用性。进一步分析了中国唐家山地震湖的真实情况。提前一个半小时合理地预测了流出峰流量和达到峰值的时间，证明了其在实际应用中的潜力。由于难以确定合理的预测，自然界中违规增长的多阶段特征可能会降低其性能。未来改善模型充分性和观测准确性的工作将增强其对自然环境的适用性。

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