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首页> 外文期刊>Advances in Water Resources >An integrated simulation-optimization modeling system for water resources management under coupled impacts of climate and land use variabilities with priority in ecological protection
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An integrated simulation-optimization modeling system for water resources management under coupled impacts of climate and land use variabilities with priority in ecological protection

机译：水资源管理耦合影响下的综合仿真优化建模系统及土地利用变量优先于生态保护

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摘要

An integrated simulation-optimization modeling system (ISOMS) approach was developed for assessing adaptive strategies in response to coupled impacts of climate and landuse variations. The ISOMS can not only reflect future hydrological trends under changing environment, but also provide water-allocation plans under various uncertainties expressed as random or fuzzy feature systematically. A case study of Anning River Basin with dry and warm characteristics in the upper Yangtze River was applied to inspect the model's applicability. A range of alternatives to adaptive strategies were generated under combinations of climate and landuse scenarios with different satisfaction levels. Results reveal that: (i) there exist increasing trend of temperature and precipitation in future period (2021-2050); (ii) the streamflow variation is more sensitive to climate change than landuse change; (iii) the hydrologic system uncertainties would lead to changes in water resources allocation; (iv) a low level of uncertainty satisfaction or a high level of violation risk would reduce the system reliability for the water resources system. The ISOMS approach has tremendous significance for evaluating hydrologic variations with complicated uncertainties, and providing optimal water allocation schemes responding to the coupled impacts of climate and landuse variations among society, economy and environment.
机译：开发了一种集成的仿真优化建模系统（ISOM）方法，用于评估适应性策略，以应对气候和土地利用差异的耦合影响。 ISOM不能在不断变化的环境下反映未来的水文趋势，而且还提供各种不确定因素的水分配计划，这些规划在各种不确定性中系统地表达为随机或模糊功能。应用了上长江上部干燥和温暖特征的鞍宁河流域的案例研究检查了模型的适用性。在具有不同满意度水平的气候和土地利用方案的组合中产生了一系列自适应策略的替代方案。结果表明：（i）未来期间存在越来越多的温度和降水趋势（2021-2050）; （ii）流流变化对气候变化比土地使用更改更敏感; （iii）水文系统的不确定性会导致水资源分配的变化; （iv）低水平的不确定性满意度或高水平的违规风险将降低水资源系统的系统可靠性。 ISOM方法对评估复杂的不确定性的水文变化具有巨大意义，并提供最佳的水分配计划，响应社会，经济和环境中的气候和土地利用变化的耦合影响。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Advances in Water Resources》 |2021年第8期|103986.1-103986.15|共15页
  • 作者

    Li Congcong; Cai Yanpeng; Tan Qian; Wang Xuan; Li Chunhui; Liu Qiang; Chen Dongni;

  • 作者单位

    Beijing Normal Univ Sch Environm State Key Lab Water Environm Simulat Beijing 100875 Peoples R China;

    Guangdong Univ Technol Inst Environm & Ecol Engn Guangdong Prov Key Lab Water Qual Improvement & E Guangzhou 510006 Peoples R China|Southern Marine Sci & Engn Guangdong Lab Guangzho Guangzhou 511458 Peoples R China;

    Guangdong Univ Technol Inst Environm & Ecol Engn Guangdong Prov Key Lab Water Qual Improvement & E Guangzhou 510006 Peoples R China;

    Beijing Normal Univ Sch Environm State Key Lab Water Environm Simulat Beijing 100875 Peoples R China;

    Beijing Normal Univ Sch Environm State Key Lab Water Environm Simulat Beijing 100875 Peoples R China;

    Beijing Normal Univ Sch Environm State Key Lab Water Environm Simulat Beijing 100875 Peoples R China;

    Beijing Normal Univ Sch Environm State Key Lab Water Environm Simulat Beijing 100875 Peoples R China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Climate projection; Landuse projection; Hydrological simulation; Ecology; Uncertain optimization; Adaptive management;

    机译：气候投影;土地使用投影;水文模拟;生态学;不确定的优化;自适应管理;

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