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首页> 外文期刊>Aerobiologia >Predicting the start of the birch pollen season at London, Derby and Cardiff, United Kingdom, using a multiple regression model, based on data from 1987 to 1997
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Predicting the start of the birch pollen season at London, Derby and Cardiff, United Kingdom, using a multiple regression model, based on data from 1987 to 1997

机译：使用多元回归模型，基于1987年至1997年的数据，预测英国伦敦，德比和加的夫的桦树花粉季节的开始

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摘要

Recent changes in weather in North-West Europe have been reflected in the start dates of pollen seasons. It is therefore necessary to update previous models, such as the one produced by Jones (1995), so that the model will be weighted by current weather patterns. Birch pollen data, collected over a period of eleven years (1987 to 1997 inclusive) from three pollen counting stations in the UK, London, Derby and Cardiff, were analysed to determine the start dates using the Sum75 method. The start dates of the birch pollen seasons of the eleven-year period were then tested for significance against ten-day aggregated variables of temperature and rainfall for each site. The significant variables were entered into multiple regression models until the most valid equation for each site was found. The models were then tested on three years not included in their data sets. The models showed mean differences between actual and predicted start dates, for the eleven years used, of 1.5, 3 and 5 days at Derby, Cardiff and London respectively. For the test years the mean difference was 1, 4.5 and 7.5 days at Derby, Cardiff and London respectively. The most powerful model was for Derby where the corresponding meteorological station is at 0.5 km distance and the weakest was for London where the corresponding meteorological station is much further away at 21 km distance. Weather variables from early February to mid March were found to be the most influential on the start dates of the birch pollen season at the three sites.
机译：花粉季节的开始日期反映了西北欧天气的最新变化。因此，有必要更新以前的模型，例如Jones（1995）制作的模型，以便该模型可以由当前的天气模式加权。从英国，伦敦，德比和加的夫的三个花粉计数站收集了11年（包括1987年至1997年）的桦树花粉数据，使用Sum75方法对其进行了分析，以确定开始日期。然后针对每个站点的十天温度和降雨量的汇总变量，测试了十一年期桦树花粉季节的开始日期的显着性。将重要变量输入多个回归模型，直到找到每个站点的最有效方程。然后对模型进行了为期三年的测试（未包含在其数据集中）。模型显示在使用的11年中，德比，加的夫和伦敦的实际开始日期和预测的开始日期之间的平均差分别为1.5天，3天和5天。对于测试年份，德比，卡迪夫和伦敦的平均差异分别为1天，4.5天和7.5天。最强大的模型用于Derby，相应的气象站距离在0.5公里，而最弱的模型用于伦敦，相应的气象站距离在21公里。在三个地点的桦树花粉季节的开始日期，发现2月初至3月中旬的天气变量影响最大。

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