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ZIMBABWE'S ZEZURU SUM GAME

机译：津巴布韦的伟大的总和游戏

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Reflecting on the crisis in Zimbabwe, one is immediately struck by the preoccupation of most commentators with President Robert Mugabe and the land reform programme. Many have touted the confluence of these two issues as the main drivers of that country's political, economic and humanitarian woes. This particular perspective, which is most dominant in the media, has captured popular attention. However, while these two factors are certainly important to understanding the current problems faced by Zimbabwe, little room has been left for the consideration of a number of underlying dynamics that have also contributed to the current stalemate. This omission encourages the perpetuation of myths and rumour, and leads to serious miscalculations in the various transition scenarios that have been mooted. One of the dynamics that has been largely omitted from the debate is the critical role played by what we have chosen to term the 'security dilemma' faced by Zimbabwe's elite. This essay will also present Zimbabwe's political crisis as the result of attempts by the ruling elite to block the transition to enhanced democracy. Also central to the article is a conceptual framework that explains how this powerful group has responded to the threat implicit in political transformation, and how the dominant nationalist ideology represented by the Zimbabwe African National Union (Patriotic Front) (ZANU-PF) has fed into this dynamic.
机译：考虑到津巴布韦的危机，大多数评论员对罗伯特·穆加贝总统和土地改革计划的关注使立即感到震惊。许多人认为这两个问题的融合是该国政治，经济和人道主义困境的主要驱动力。这种在媒体中占主导地位的特殊观点引起了公众的关注。然而，尽管这两个因素对于理解津巴布韦当前面临的问题当然很重要，但考虑到许多也导致当前僵局的潜在动力的余地很小。这种疏忽鼓励了神话和谣言的长期存在，并导致在已经提出的各种过渡方案中造成严重的错误估计。辩论中被很大程度上忽略的动力之一是我们选择的津巴布韦精英所面临的“安全困境”所扮演的关键角色。这篇文章还将介绍津巴布韦的政治危机，这是统治精英试图阻止向增强民主的过渡的结果。这篇文章的核心也是一个概念框架，该框架解释了这个强大的集团如何应对政治转型中隐含的威胁，以及以津巴布韦非洲民族联盟（爱国阵线）（ZANU-PF）为代表的占主导地位的民族主义意识形态这种动态。

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  • 来源
    《African security review》 |2005年第3期|p.77-93|共17页
  • 作者

    CHRIS MAROLENG;

  • 作者单位

    African Security Analysis programme at the Institute for Security Studies, Pretoria;

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  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 军事;
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